New climate commitments

It’s time for the rubber to meet the road as countries update their initial pledges under the Paris climate accord. So far, 79 nations have indicated that they plan to announce stronger efforts in 2020, and two have already submitted new targets.

Current commitments — officially known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs — will not deliver the goal of limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. Indeed, a recent assessment by the Climate Action Tracker said the world is on track for almost 3 degrees of warming by 2100.

It’s unclear how much that will change next year. Most of the new pledges will come from small countries that contribute little to warming, said Taryn Fransen, a climate policy expert at the World Resources Institute, which maintains the ClimateWatch NDC tracker. “The big question for this coming year is whether we’ll see a similar level of commitment from larger countries,” she said.

No one is expecting much from the U.S. — the biggest historical emitter of greenhouse gases — since President Trump has already begun the process of leaving the Paris deal. Japan and Australia have also hinted that they will not increase their ambitions. On the other hand, the European Union — the world’s third-largest emitter — recently voted to become carbon neutral by 2050.

The big unknowns are the other major players such as China and India, and their moves in 2020 will likely depend on global politics — including the outcome of the U.S. election, which will determine whether America fully abdicates its role as a global climate leader. That “could certainly have implications for what they do,” Fransen said.