ELECTORAL POLITICS: OUTLOOK ROSY
Who knew that all we needed to fix American democracy was Donald Trump? Because of the president, people across the political spectrum are excited about voting again, and that makes one prediction for the 2020 election simple: massive voter turnout.
The 2018 midterm turnout was the biggest in 100 years, and the trend continued in 2019. In Kentucky, where I live, a gubernatorial election usually attracts a little more than 30% of registered voters; in the governor’s race last month, 42% turned out.
For 2020, I have visions of the ending scene in “Field of Dreams,” where, as Kevin Costner plays catch with his dad, the camera pans out to show a line of headlights as far as the eye can see. People did come to Ray’s farm, and I think we’ll see huge throngs heading to polling places in November. I pray that our national electoral infrastructure holds up under the avalanche of democracy, which could bring a 65% turnout or higher (it was 60% in 2016).
So what does this mean for the bigger question of who will win? A lot’s in flux, of course, including who the Democratic nominee will be, but there’s a high likelihood that President Trump will again lose the popular vote and win the electoral college.
Remember: Trump, who lost the popular vote by roughly 3 million votes in 2016, can do worse than before and still win. Whether he wins Texas by 9 points (his 2016 margin) or 2 points, he still collects 36 electors. And whether he loses California by 30 points (2016 margin) or 35, he still gets zero electors.
You see where I am going with this. As the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman analyzes it, Trump could lose by roughly 5 million votes and still win! He can lose two of the big three in the upper Midwest (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) and still win, if he holds everything else from before.
And why wouldn’t he? Once the impeachment sideshow ends in January, Americans will begin to focus on their personal situations and electoral choices. The latest Quinnipiac Poll laid bare the challenge for Democrats when it asked respondents if they were better off financially than they were in 2016.
Fifty-seven percent said yes, and only 22% said no. Young folks — ages 18 to 34 — were the most likely to say they are better off. Men. Women. Whites. Latinos. Young. Old. All better off. Only African Americans, by a 29% to 45% margin, said they were worse off, despite black Americans enjoying huge job gains as our national unemployment rate hit a 50-year low this month.
Meanwhile, Trump’s prospective opponents describe America as though it is in another Great Depression. Increasingly disconnected from the rather pleasant reality experienced in most corners of America, Democrats want voters to believe we live in a hellhole and only they can help us climb out.
No matter. Just like catcher John Kinsella at the end of “Field of Dreams,” millions of Americans will emerge from their personal cornfield on election day, take stock of their well-paying job and personal pursuit of the American Dream, and ask one question: “Is this heaven?”
And then they’ll vote.