Super Bowl wagering could break the bank
Editor’s note: Each week VSiN.com experts provide their take on Las Vegas sports betting action involving NFL, and local college and pro games. Youmans shares his best NFL bets. Fogle analyzes the games of the Los Angeles area pro and college teams.
When oddsmakers were debating the Super Bowl LIV opening line Sunday night, some favored Kansas City, others favored San Francisco and all were in awe of Patrick Mahomes.
The line opened pick-em at William Hill sportsbooks, where big bets immediately showed on each side. By Monday, the consensus line was Kansas City as a onepoint favorite, mostly due to the Mahomes factor.
“What I saw that makes Kansas City favored is Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the NFL,” said John Murray, Westgate SuperBook director. “The public is going to want to bet on Mahomes.”
In the Chiefs’ 35-24 victory over Tennessee in the AFC title game, Mahomes passed for three touchdowns and added a spectacular 27-yard scoring run. His performance had Murray leaning to Kansas City -3 as the Super Bowl opener before the NFC title game kicked off.
“We talked about going with a bigger number after the AFC championship game, unless the 49ers pummeled Green Bay, and that’s exactly what happened,” Murray said.
San Francisco rolled to a 27-0 halftime lead in a 37-20 blowout of Green Bay. The 49ers’ running attack and defense were impressive enough to close the gap in the Super Bowl point spread.
“If these teams played 100 times, it probably would be 50-50,” said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill sportsbook director.
William Hill books took a $100,000 wager on San Francisco at even money on the moneyline and a $33,000 bet on Kansas City at pick-em. The total points opened at 51½, and the SuperBook reported a $110,000 bet over the total of 52½, helping to push the number to 53½. That was the kickoff to what will be two weeks of major wagering before the Feb. 2 game in Miami.
“We’re about dead even on money,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s a good start to the handle, which will be out of this world.”
The Chiefs-49ers game is expected to break Nevada’s Super Bowl wagering handle record of $158.6 million set in 2018 when Philadelphia upset New England. Proposition betting accounts for more than 50% of the game’s handle at some sportsbooks. With Mahomes on the marquee, prop business will be brisk.
“We might have a record number of props on Mahomes,” Bogdanovich said. “It will be all Mahomes. But the San Francisco defense is stout. That’s why this matchup is so good.”
The conference championship results were ugly for a majority of sportsbooks, with both favorites covering the spread and both scores flying over the total. The betting public did very well with those scenarios.
“We got decapitated,” Bogdanovich said.
“I think [the 49ers] have the defensive front to give Mahomes some trouble,” said Michael Lombardi, a VSiN analyst and former NFL executive.
San Francisco had 42 rushing attempts for 285 yards against Green Bay, with Raheem Mostert carrying 29 times for 220 yards and four touchdowns. There was little need for coach Kyle Shanahan to use the passing game, and Jimmy Garoppolo went six for eight for only 77 yards.
“I sort of lean to the Niners. I think they will be able to run the ball,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ll see what wins, the greatest player on earth or the ground-and-pound of Shanahan.
“But Andy Reid is almost unbeatable after bye weeks, and this will be like a bye week. Reid with two weeks to prepare is pretty good.”
Reid, the Chiefs coach, has an 18-3 career record in the regular season after a bye and is 5-2 in the playoffs. Reid lost in his only previous Super Bowl appearance with the Eagles.
“I would give a pretty nice edge to San Francisco in terms of the coaching staff,” Murray said. “But I don’t know that Jimmy G is a quarterback who’s capable of coming from behind.”
The only Super Bowl to close pick-em was in 2015, when Russell Wilson was picked off at the goal line in the last minute of Seattle’s loss to New England.
“To me,” Murray said, “this game is just a tossup.”
Betting the Lakers
NBA fans in the Northeast get their only regularseason in-person look at LeBron James and the Lakers this week: Monday in Boston, Wednesday in New York, Thursday in Brooklyn and Saturday in Philadelphia.
It’s quite a dilemma for local fans who paid big money to see him play. They want to see their local team do well, but should they risk betting against him?
The Lakers are 10-1 straight up (SU) since Christmas and 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games, including an impressive 124-115 win Saturday at Houston as 3.5point underdogs. It brought the Lakers to 34-8 SU, 23-18-1 ATS for the season.
A helpful tip for fans and bettors in the Lakers-Rockets game was provided on game day by VSiN’s Jonathan Von Tobel on “The Lombardi Line.” He noted league rankings show “the Lakers take the most shots at the rim, and they are the best shooting team within four feet.” They shot 74.3% in close against Houston’s notoriously soft inside defense.
Analysts should expect such dominance to continue against opponents not equipped to deal with the Lakers’ aggressive, physical onslaught.
The Lakers entered the week with the best record in the Western Conference and a 41⁄2-game cushion over the Clippers before Monday night’s loss to Boston. Of course, clinching homecourt advantage in a playoff series between the two is irrelevant because they share Staples Center. Both are still virtual co-favorites to win the conference on futures boards partly because of that quirk.
The Clippers have won five of their last six straight up but are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven against inflated point spreads. They rallied to win, but not cover, Saturday at New Orleans 133-130 as seven-point favorites. A winter tour of Sun Belt states continues Tuesday at Dallas, Wednesday at Atlanta, Friday at Miami and Sunday at Orlando.