UCLA’s hoops play of late is beating the spread
Editor’s note: Each week VSIN.com experts provide their take on Las Vegas sports betting action.
UCLA’s amazing college basketball run, which has stunned oddsmakers, pundits and bracketologists, continued over the weekend with a pair of blowout covers.
On Thursday, UCLA (+4) won at Utah 69-58, beating the spread by 15 points. It was the Bruins’ fifth outright upset in Pac-12 play after shockers over Washington, Oregon State, Colorado and Arizona.
On Saturday, UCLA (+10) won at Colorado 70-63, beating the spread by 17 points. That finished a season sweep of the highly regarded Buffaloes, made it six outright upsets in league play and lifted the Bruins to 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 games.
Those victories pushed UCLA onto the NCAA tournament bubble, according to Joe Lunardi of ESPN. That wouldn’t have seemed possible after a 77-74 home loss to Cal State Fullerton as a 16-point favorite in late December.
UCLA must remain focused to earn a bid to the tournament and continue cashing tickets against a slow-reacting market. This week the Bruins host Arizona State on Thursday and Arizona on Saturday before finishing the regular season March 7 at USC.
The Trojans, meanwhile, backtracked after getting swept at Colorado and at Utah. USC covered the spread Thursday in a 70-66 loss at Boulder, getting 9.5 points. But an ugly 79-65 loss Sunday in Salt Lake City at +1 is going to sting on the resume.
That point-spread split leaves USC at 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games. Since playing each other Jan. 11, USC and UCLA are a combined 17-7 against the market.
Spring into action
It will come as no surprise that betting lines are attached to spring training games and the sportsbooks see business on a daily basis.
“The action is relatively minor,” said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill sportsbook director. “It’s small, but it’s better than nothing. On a Monday morning when there’s nothing going on, it’s good. On Saturday, when there’s college basketball, you don’t even know baseball is there.”
Gerrit Cole will be one of the primary curiosities of the spring as he leads the rotation for the New York Yankees, the World Series favorites. The Houston Astros, Cole’s former team, have become public enemy No. 1 after a sign-stealing scandal that rocked the sport and rattled the commissioner.
“I pretty much follow every team about the same, but I guess like most people, I really want to see what’s up with the Astros this spring,” said Dave Cokin, a veteran baseball handicapper.
“There might well be some benefit in trying to go against them in spring games as their focus has to be in question, at least in these meaningless games.”
Exhibition baseball is a handicapping challenge that a majority of public bettors choose to ignore. The standings are irrelevant, some games feature split squads, starters often make cameo appearances and the main goal for most teams is talent evaluation.
The amount of smart money in the market is minimal because books offer lower wagering limits on spring games — $1,000 per side is the guideline at William Hill and most other books. Still, there are betting angles worth exploring, with the Astros’ distractions being one. VSiN analyst Josh Appelbaum noted wiseguys typically prefer to play underdogs.
Since 2005, spring training underdogs have posted a winning percentage of 46.2 as compared to 42.5% in the regular season, according to Bet Labs Sports. When wins and losses don’t matter, the playing field is leveled and it decreases the edge for the favorite.
“The key is betting these ’dogs on the spread, also known as the run-line. This means betting the dogs at +1.5 runs, meaning they can either win the game or lose by one and you still win your bet,” Appelbaum said. “Spring training run-line underdogs are 61.8% since 2005. A $100 bettor taking each one would have profited $2,207. If they are also on the road, they improve to 64.4% (profiting $7,643). There is barely any homefield advantage in the preseason. Plus, games can end in a tie in the preseason, which would cash a +1.5 bet.”
With the expectation that Cole will open the season as the Yankees starter on March 26, the Westgate SuperBook has posted a look-ahead line of New York -450 at Baltimore.
“I’m 99% sure there never has been an opening-day favorite that big,” said Chris Andrews, South Point sportsbook director.
It’s a sign of things to come for Cole and the Yankees.
In the NBA
8 The Lakers (-7.5) failed to cover in Sunday’s 114-112 thriller over the Boston Celtics. The victory helped solidify the Lakers’ hold on the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Even with the non-cover, the Lakers are 3-1 ATS in their last four games and a respectable 29-25-1 ATS for the season despite the height of their daily hurdles.
The Lakers have two nationally televised meetings with Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans this week. They square off Tuesday at Staples Center (7 p.m., TNT) and Sunday in New Orleans (5 p.m., ESPN). In their last 11 games with a healthy Williamson, the Pelicans are 8-3 straight up and ATS after beating Golden State 115-101 as 10-point favorites Sunday night.
8 The Clippers were disappointing in a home loss Saturday to Sacramento, falling 112-103 as 8.5-point favorites. The Clippers had lost and failed to cover three straight games before they defeated Memphis Monday night in a home game. Before Monday they were 29-27 ATS for the season, which is a losing record for bettors because of the 10% vigorish on losses. In real-money terms, the record is 29 wins, 29.7 losses.
Youmans and Fogle work for VSiN, the sports betting network.