Brady is already a hot ticket in Vegas
Editor’s note: Each week, VSiN.com experts provide their take on Las Vegas sports betting action.
As conflicting media reports surface, the drama surrounding Tom Brady’s next move has turned into a soap opera of sorts. It’s also a story line fit for sports betting.
When a six-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback is set to hit the NFL’s open market, why not make his decision a proposition bet?
With free agency beginning March 18, a breakup between Brady and the New England Patriots after 20 years appears more likely than ever, believe it or not. William Hill oddsmakers are offering the opportunity to bet on it: Which team will Brady take his first snap with in Week 1 next season?
“It’s getting a lot of publicity and people are betting it, so it’s a win-win prop for us,” said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill sportsbook director.
After about a week, the Patriots are -150 favorites to keep Brady. Bogdanovich said the Las Vegas Raiders, the second choice at 4-1 odds, have attracted the most wagering interest in Nevada by drawing approximately 25% of the 173 tickets written on the prop. The Chargers (9-2) and Tennessee Titans (7-1) are the only other choices listed at single-digit odds.
“I would like to see some change,” Bogdanovich said. “I hope Brady goes anywhere but New England. I want something different.”
Michael Lombardi, a VSiN analyst and former NFL executive who worked in the Patriots organization from 2014 to 2016, said it’s smart to bet on change.
“I think it will come down to the Titans and Raiders,” Lombardi said.
The Brady prop is a foray into a new frontier. A freeagency decision is not a normal betting option, and
Nevada gaming rules stipulate a prop must be determined on the field of play, so the prop must be worded accordingly. If Brady does not take a snap in Week 1, because of injury or retirement, William Hill posted “None” as an option at 40-1 odds.
A few other sportsbooks, including the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas and PointsBet in New Jersey, also opened the Brady prop recently.
“One of the reasons we really wanted to get this prop up is it opens up opportunities for other free agents in all sports,” Westgate book director John Murray said. “Nobody has any idea where Brady is going, but people are interested in it.”
The Westgate opened the Patriots as -400 favorites, and the price has been lowered to -200. The Titans, who lead the ticket count, have been bet from 10-1 to 4-1. The Raiders, with the second-most tickets, were adjusted from 6-1 to 5-1. Most of the wagers are in the $50 to $100 range, Murray said, with Dallas (80-1) and Tampa Bay (14-1) also attracting small action.
“The Patriots have seen a few decent-sized bets, but they are notably lagging on the ticket count at around 10%,” Matthew Chaprales of PointsBet said. “The Chargers, just under 20%, and the Titans at 17% have generated the most interest. This market is unique in that since it’s purely narrative-driven, the Pats’ price is moving primarily due to the recent swell of media reports as opposed to action.”
PointsBet lists the Patriots at -145 to be Brady’s Week 1 team, followed by the Raiders (9-2), Titans (11-2) and Chargers (7-1).
UCLA’s sudden rise
After three months of disappointing results, UCLA’s basketball team earned an astonishing national ranking of No. 18 in February for adjusted net efficiency, according to Jordan Sperber of Hoop
Vision.
It came after ranking only No. 97 in November, No. 145 in December and No. 120 in January. In a finger snap, the Bruins jumped from a team that didn’t deserve postseason consideration to one consistently playing at the level of a fifth seed in the NCAA tournament.
Net efficiency is an analytic used by statheads and informed bettors to evaluate team performance. Efficiency is scoring adjusted for pace, to avoid illusions created by extreme styles. The calculation is then adjusted for caliber of opponents.
Counting only February, UCLA outperformed many high-profile contenders such as Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, Seton Hall and Villanova. No other Pac-12 program was listed in Sperber’s February top 25.
Bettors aren’t surprised at all. UCLA went 6-2-1 against the spread (ATS) for the month, including two outright upsets of Arizona and one apiece against Colorado and Utah. It’s part of a 9-3-1 ATS tear that dates to Jan. 19.
UCLA (-3) pushed in a 75-72 victory over Arizona State on Thursday before rallying as a two-point underdog to beat Arizona 69-64 on Saturday night. Those straight-up victories moved the Bruins to the top of the Pac-12 standings with a 12-5 record.
UCLA closes the regular season Saturday at USC. The Trojans also remained hot against market expectations with a pair of win/ covers against the Arizona schools. USC (+41⁄2) beat Arizona 57-48 on Thursday. Two days later, the Trojans (-3) defeated Arizona State 71-61. That’s a combined 201⁄2-point cover for a team now 12-3 ATS in its last 15.
Elsewhere
In the NBA, the Lakers finished a sweep of a homeand-home challenge against the up-and-coming New Orleans Pelicans. After winning 118-109 as 71⁄2-point favorites Tuesday at Staples Center, they prevailed 122-114 as two-point underdogs Sunday on the road.
It lifted the Lakers to 46-13 straight up and 32-26-1 ATS. LeBron James and company are 6-2 ATS in their last eight.
The erratic Clippers had a strong week. They were 4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread. Covers against Memphis (16 points) and Denver (22 points) were absolute laughers. The only non-cover was Sunday’s 136-130 win over Philadelphia as pricey 14-point favorites. It left the Clippers 41-19 straight up and 32-28 ATS (plus 1.2 betting units when you account for the 10% vigorish on losses).