Low expectations? Paul has slightly different plans
It’s even more automatic than the right elbow jumper that Chris Paul has made over defenders in more than 1,000 NBA games. Give Paul a slight — even one smaller than the window he needs to take that signature shot — and he’ll hang on to it forever.
It’s hard to fault the algorithm at ESPN that thought the Thunder didn’t have much of a chance (0.2%) to make the playoffs. They had traded their two best players, sending signals throughout the league that they were more interested in rebuilding than competing.
But here they are, more than a year after dealing Paul George and Russell Westbrook in rapid succession, one of the scariest teams inside the NBA bubble, with Paul using that mathematical slight to keep things burning — even after his team thumped the West-favorite Lakers.
“No one expected us to be here — 0.2, 0.2%,” Paul said earlier this week.
Expectations are shifting — they have been for a while to anyone who has paid attention. The Thunder never sold off the pieces they received in the deal for Westbrook, namely Paul and a package of first-round draft picks. Secondyear star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the centerpiece of the George deal, continued to blossom outside of Los Angeles. A capable supporting cast built around center Steven Adams and guard Dennis Schroder kept the Thunder in the middle of the playoff race all season.
There wasn’t a lot of reason to give the Thunder that much thought. They are a nice story — one of the NBA’s great overachievers, but they couldn’t have been viewed by many people as a serious threat in the postseason. And under the old circumstances, that would certainly still be true.
Now? In empty gyms at Disney World with digital fans?
“Obviously, the Lakers and the Clippers are great. Those two teams are terrific. But when you have a four-month hiatus like we all did, everybody is starting from ground zero,” Thunder coach Billy Donovan said during a videoconference. “And some teams will get more cohesive a little quicker than others. And that’s what everyone is fighting for right now. … This takes time. You can’t have four months off like this and expect teams that were really maybe elite at the end of February and in March to be elite right now.
“I think that’s why everybody’s really excited about the opportunity to compete. … In this situation, a lot of things could happen.”
Donovan got proof on Friday when his team was blowing out Memphis before the desperate Grizzlies got on track for the first time in the bubble and sprinted past Oklahoma City 121-92.
The general thinking is the Thunder are more like the team that dropped the listless Lakers earlier this week than the one that got steamrolled by Memphis on Friday. Maybe not? It’s all part of the bubble’s charm, an unpredictability that comes with a barrage of high-stakes games and results smooshed into a handful of weeks.
If you’re an optimist about the Thunder, it’s because of their leader.
Paul has looked incredibly comfortable. He was in the middle of the planning of the restart thanks to his role as the players’ union president, giving him one of the most powerful voices. On the court, flanked by players willing to follow, he’s once again looked like one of the NBA’s top conductors after spending two seasons deferring to James Harden in Houston.
For now, though, the Thunder are viewed as a spoiler — a team dangerous enough to derail championship hopes but not good enough to author its own.
Doubt won’t be a burden they have to overcome — not with Paul taking notes, keeping track and letting it fuel him and ignite his team.
“We’re just going to keep our head down, keep fighting,” he said after beating the Lakers. “Understand that we weren’t supposed to be here — 0.2, 0.2% chance.”
Tip-ins
As the NBA pushes toward the playoffs, clarity has been gained on the most valuable piece of information — no team is sure to avoid an upset in the first round of the playoffs with the exceptions of Milwaukee and Toronto, which will be facing Orlando or Brooklyn in the first round. … Ben Simmons’ knee dislocation is just the latest setback for Philadelphia, a team some league insiders believed to be a dark horse. The injury will keep Simmons out indefinitely — and keep 76ers coach Brett Brown from finding a rotation with which he’s comfortable. … If New Orleans is unable to make the postseason, it’ll snap a 13-year streak of postseason berths that’s stretched over JJ Redick’s entire NBA career. … In a 15-point loss Thursday to Phoenix, T.J. Warren scored only 16 points after scoring at least 32 in his three previous games. including a 53-point game in his bubble opener. …Denver rookie Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 31.3 points and 13.0 rebounds in his last three games. Before the bubble, Porter had never scored more than 25 points and had at least 13 rebounds only once.