Handling heaters
L. A.’ s staff threw fastballs at a high rate this season, but the problem is Atlanta thrives against hard stuff.
Braves’ hitters have thrived on the fastballs Dodgers like to throw.
The first inning of the first game of this National League Championship Series showcased a strength- against- strength matchup that could become a key factor in who wins the pennant.
Walker Buehler had Freddie Freeman right where he wanted him Monday night in Arlington, Texas.
The Dodgers starter was ahead 1- and- 2 in the count against the Atlanta Braves’ MVP contender. Catcher Will Smith called for the most- used pitch in Buehler’s arsenal to put Freeman away. The right- hander wound up and sent a 97- mph four- seam fastball streaking toward the plate.
Then he watched as Freeman sent it screaming over the rightfield wall for a solo home run.
Buehler appeared to miss his spot, failing to elevate a fastball that should have been farther up and farther in. But he was also beat trying to bury Freeman with his best pitch.
Tuesday’s second game saw fewer Dodgers fastballs thrown with split- change specialist Tony Gonsolin getting the start. But in the remainder of the series, the
fastball matchup will likely come into focus again.
This season, Buehler and most other Dodgers pitchers have loved throwing fastballs.
The Braves, however, love to feast on them.
Only one team this season threw fastballs, sinkers and cutters
at a higher combined rate than the Dodgers at 63.1%, according to Major League Baseball’s Statcast system, and no club averaged a harder fastball velocity than their 94.7 mph. The pitching staff was successful doing so too, limiting opponents with those pitches to a .221 batting average and .373 slugging percentage, both of which led the majors.
The Braves, however, thrived against the hard stuff. Their .308 batting average against fastballs, sinkers and cutters topped the big leagues by 10 points. Their .552 slugging percentage trailed only the Dodgers.
Against pitches of 97 mph or higher, the Braves were even better, leading the majors with a .553 slugging percentage and ranking second with a .309 batting average.
Entering the series, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts acknowledged that his team needed to be sharp with its fastballs — the pitch his hard- throwing staff relies on most.
“Nowadays, we always talk about timing a bullet,” Roberts said. “You’ve still got to make quality pitches regardless if it’s 97 or 101 or whatever. If it’s not located, guys are gonna still square it up.”
In Monday night’s 5- 1 seriesopening loss, the Dodgers found that out f irsthand. All three of the Braves’ home runs came against fastballs, each one having missed its spot in a two- strike pitcher’s count.
And there are few teams better than the Braves making you pay for missing your spot.
Freeman batted .431 with nine home runs this season swinging at fastballs, cutters and sinkers. His homer against Gonsolin in Atlanta’s 8- 7 win Tuesday came on a splitter, but his run- scoring single later in the game was on a low fastball from reliever Pedro Báez that he fought off. Braves designated hitter Marcell Ozuna batted .403 with a team- high 13 homers against those three pitches. And six of Atlanta’s nine starters hit at least .300 when challenged with heaters.
Freeman said punishing those mistakes will be particularly important in this series.
“They’ve got power arms,” he said of the Dodgers. “Every guy out of their bullpen seems to be 95plus. It’s gonna be hard to string hits together. That’s what the playoffs is all about. It comes down to the home run because getting three hits against a staff like this is gonna be difficult.”
The Dodgers’ rotation also leaned on fastballs this season. Julio Urías, who’s scheduled to start in Game 3, threw his mid- 90s, highspin- rate four- seamer more than 55% of the time. An increase in fastball velocity helped Clayton Kershaw — who was scratched from a scheduled Game 2 start but could be available this series — have a strong season. And Dustin May, who could either start or continue pitching in a swingman role, is defined by his triple- digit heat.
To come back and challenge in the series, the Dodgers’ effectiveness with the fastball might have to be as strong as it’s been all year. As Buehler put it Monday night, ref lecting on the home run he gave up to Freeman, “You can’t make mistakes like that in games like this.”