Cases surge in the Southland
L. A. is one of them, but the increases could partly be due to more COVID testing.
Increases in L. A. and other areas could partly be due to more COVID- 19 testing.
Top state and local health officials continued Tuesday to voice growing alarm over recent increases in the number of people becoming infected by the novel coronavirus.
In four Southern California counties — Imperial, San Bernardino, Riverside and Los Angeles — the average numbers of new daily infections per 100,000 residents over the past week rank among the top f ive statewide, according to The Times’ coronavirus tracker.
Compared with the prior week, new cases in Los Angeles County jumped from an average of 63.4 for every 100,000 residents to 111.3. The average case rate climbed from 77.5 to 140.3 in San Bernardino and from 94.4 to 111.5 in Riverside, while in Imperial new cases soared from an average of 141.5 per 100,000 residents to 225.8.
“We are seeing increased disease in the community,” Riverside County Public Health Director Kim Saruwatari told the county Board of Supervisors on Tuesday. “This is consistent with what other areas of the country are seeing, and we are fortunate that we’re not seeing it to the level that many others are.”
In L. A. County, Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said that the raw count of new cases has increased from an average of about 940 infections each day in early October to almost 1,200 as of last week.
The rise is “a cause for concern,” she said Monday, and came about because “of decisions we collectively made two to three weeks ago, and the action we’re taking today will inf luence whether we continue our recovery journey, we stall, or we step backward.”
The increases in Southern California were contributing to an overall rise statewide. According to the most recent available state data, the latest seven- day average of new COVID- 19 cases in California is 4,303 — notably higher than the 14- day average of 3,699.
While the rising infection rates in Los Angeles County can be attributed in part to thousands of backlogged test results that were slow to be recorded, the fact that surrounding counties are experiencing rising case totals as well indicates backlogs may not be solely responsible.
Though tallying the number of new infections is a useful metric, the case totals are driven in part by how much testing is done. Gov. Gavin Newsom said Tuesday, “we are never ashamed of testing more people.”
“The real headline for us in terms of alarm bells and red f lags” is the positivity rate, Newsom said, referring to percentage of tests performed that come back postive for the virus. The positivity rate is an important measure because it provides a clear indication of how widespread the virus is in the area being tested and whether the amount of testing being done is keeping pace with the infection’s spread.
In California, the positivity rate has remained low for some time, though it has ticked up somewhat to a seven- day average of 3.2%, compared with a 14- day average of 2.9%, Newsom said during a briefing.
Overall, California has seen more than 911,000 conf irmed cases of COVID- 19 and over 17,300 deaths.
Newsom expressed concern about COVID- 19 hotspots in California and across the nation, saying experts continue to predict a second or third wave in the weeks and months ahead.
“The hospitalization numbers here in the state of California, the ICU numbers here in the state of California, now beginning to trend back up. And the holidays in front of us,” he said.
New case and testing positivity rates are the determining factors of the state’s color- coded, four- tier reopening road map, which determines how widely individual counties can reopen businesses and other communal spaces.
The nine counties remaining in the purple tier, which indicates widespread risk of community coronavirus transmission and stipulates that many businesses and public facilities either cannot operate indoors or can do so only at a strictly limited capacity, are Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, Imperial, Monterey, Tulare, Madera, Sonoma and Tehama.
By comparison, 10 counties — including San Francisco — are now situated in the yellow tier and considered to have minimal risk of transmission, according to the state.
During Tuesday’s Board of Supervisors’ meeting, Ferrer said L. A. County is likely at least three or four weeks away from getting into the red tier. While the increase in California’s case count remains relatively modest at this point and pales in comparison to the sharp rises seen elsewhere in the U. S., officials say it’s vital that residents take steps now to curtail the trend.
Of particular concern is the holiday season, during which residents traditionally travel and gather with extended family and friends. This year, such celebrations would create new opportunities for the virus to spread.
L. A. County Health Officer Dr. Muntu Davis issued an advisory Monday warning residents of the risk of COVID- 19 transmission at private gatherings and public celebrations. Any such gatherings — including those in anticipation of a potential Dodgers’ World Series win — must comply with public health protocols, he said, meaning they must be two hours or less, held outdoors with physical distancing and limited to attendees from no more than three households.