GRAMMY PREDICTIONS
Forecasting’s not so hard; the ceremony is the question mark
The biggest question is just what form the ceremony will take.
THANKS TO THE C OVID -19 pandemic, the 63rd Gram my Awards might be the first in years with more questions about what the ceremony will look like than about who will win what. The Recording Academy has said the show will take place Jan. 31 in downtown Los Angeles — but beyond that, we’re left to speculate for now on the details, including the size of any audience and whether performances and presentations will be live or taped. Still, folks in the music business are angling as always to ensure that the trophies are handed out the way they want. Here’s an early guide to the major ( and some of the more interesting) categories as final-round voting gets underway.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Jhené Aiko, “Chilombo” Black Pumas, “Black Pumas ( Deluxe
Edition)” Coldplay, “Everyday Life” Jacob Collier, “Djesse Vol. 3” Haim, “Women in Music Pt. III” Dua Lipa, “Future Nostalgia” Post Malone, “Hollywood’s Bleeding” Taylor Swift, “Folklore”
Analysis: After winning the Grammys’ most prestigious prize twice before she turned 30, Swift famously got the cold shoulder with her last two LPs, which suggests that her support among academy members ( who came back around for the made- in- quarantine “Folklore”) isn’t as strong as it used to be. But in a category peppered with more obscure names than usual — obscure, anyway, to folks not on the secretive nominating committees — you can bet that Swift’s brand recognition will go a long way with the organization’s rank and f ile.
Front- runner: Taylor Swift
Wild card: Coldplay, whose well- meaning if slightly naive dabbling in African music could win over aging voters with fond memories of Paul Simon’s “Graceland.”
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Beyoncé, “Black Parade” Black Pumas, “Colors” DaBaby featuring Roddy Ricch,
“Rockstar” Doja Cat, “Say So” Billie Eilish, “Everything I Wanted” Dua Lipa, “Don’t Start Now” Post Malone, “Circles” Megan Thee Stallion featuring
Beyoncé, “Savage”
Analysis: Beyoncé hasn’t taken a generalf ield prize since she won song of the year a decade ago with “Single Ladies ( Put a Ring on It).” Now she’s up twice for record of the year, which recognizes performers and producers — only the second time an artist has scored two nods in the category in the same year, after Pharrell Williams did it in 2014. ( Overall, Beyoncé is tied at seven with Frank Sinatra for the most record nominations in Grammy history.) Provided “Black Parade” and “Savage” don’t split the vote, expect this award to go to the former.
Front- runner: Beyoncé
Wild card: Billie Eilish, whose sweep at the 62nd Grammys means she has enough support in the academy that she might win with even a minor hit.
SONG OF THE YEAR
“Black Parade,” written by Denisia Andrews, Beyoncé, Stephen Bray, Shawn Carter, Brittany Coney, Derek James Dixie, Akil King, Kim “Kaydence” Krysiuk and Rickie “Caso” Tice ( performed by Beyoncé) “The Box,” written by Samuel Gloade and Rodrick Moore ( performed by Roddy Ricch) “Cardigan,” written by Aaron Dessner and
Taylor Swift ( performed by Taylor Swift) “Circles,” written by Louis Bell, Adam Feeney, Kaan Gunesberk, Austin Post and Billy Walsh ( performed by Post Malone) “Don’t Start Now,” written by Caroline Ailin, Ian Kirkpatrick, Dua Lipa and Emily Warren ( performed by Dua Lipa) “Everything I Wanted,” written by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell ( performed by Billie Eilish) “I Can’t Breathe,” written by Dernst Emile II, H. E. R. and Tiara Thomas ( performed by H. E. R.) “If the World Was Ending,” written by Julia Michaels and JP Saxe ( performed by JP Saxe featuring Julia Michaels)
Analysis: Swift has gone 0 for 4 for song of the year, a songwriting prize for which only Paul McCartney and Lionel Richie have been nominated more times. Yet “Cardigan” is slower and moodier than the tunes that preceded it — propitious qualities in a category that’s gone in recent years for dramatic ballads such as Adele’s “Hello” and Sam Smith’s “Stay With Me.”
Front- runner: “Cardigan”
Wild card: “I Can’t Breathe,” a tender yet unsparing protest song by proven Grammy fave H. E. R. BEST NEW ARTIST
Ingrid Andress Phoebe Bridgers Chika Noah Cyrus D Smoke Doja Cat Kaytranada Megan Thee Stallion
Analysis: Consider this a contest between Bridgers and Megan Thee Stallion — which is to say, between a smart, funny singersongwriter steeped in the classics ( Bob Dylan, Joni Mitchell, Conor Oberst) and a smart, funny rapper steeped in the classics ( Lil’ Kim, UGK, the Notorious B. I. G.).
Front- runner: Megan Thee Stallion
Wild card: Noah Cyrus, whose father, Billy Ray, competed for the same prize in 1993.
POP VOCAL ALBUM
Justin Bieber, “Changes” Lady Gaga, “Chromatica” Dua Lipa, “Future Nostalgia” Harry Styles, “Fine Line” Taylor Swift, “Folklore”
Analysis: Many awards watchers assumed that Styles would rake in the nominations for his boomer- approved sophomore LP. Instead, he was unexpectedly shut out of the major categories, which leaves his best chance for Grammy glory in this genre category — so long as his ex Swift doesn’t take the prize.
Front- runner: Harry Styles
Wild card: Justin Bieber, who may have hurt his chances by complaining on Instagram that he’d rather have been nominated for an R& B award.
ROCK PERFORMANCE
Fiona Apple, “Shameika” Big Thief, “Not” Phoebe Bridgers, “Kyoto” Haim, “The Steps” Brittany Howard, “Stay High” Grace Potter, “Daylight”
Analysis: For the f irst time in Grammy history, this category — traditionally the province of dudes like Jack White and the Foo Fighters — includes only female solo acts and bands fronted by women. Bridgers, Apple and Howard are all worthy contenders, but Haim’s classic- rock chops ( and classic- rock connections) are likely to give the L. A. sister trio the edge.
Front- runner: Haim
Wild card: Big Thief, a fuzzy- shaggy indie band with critical acclaim to rival Apple’s.
RAP PERFORMANCE
Big Sean featuring Nipsey Hussle,
“Deep Reverence” DaBaby, “Bop” Jack Harlow, “What’s Poppin” Lil Baby, “The Bigger Picture” Megan Thee Stallion featuring
Beyoncé, “Savage” Pop Smoke, “Dior”
Analysis: Far more ref lective of 2020 hiphop than the rap album category ( with its vexing abundance of elders), the slate here offers several reasonable wins, none more deserved than Lil Baby’s Black Lives Matter- inspired “The Bigger Picture” or the haunting “Dior” by Pop Smoke, a talent cut way too short when he was killed at age 20 in February.
Front- runner: Pop Smoke
Wild card: Jack Harlow, because you should never discount a white rapper’s chances at the Grammys. 8