Big starts, big drops. Huh?
‘Space Jam’ and other films fall fast after rosy debuts. Streaming and virus among factors.
The drop in ticket sales between a big movie’s first and second weekends in theaters usually tells you a lot about the audience’s response.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, a roughly 50% decline after the debut weekend was considered a strong result. Better retention would send Champagne glasses clinking. Sales plummeting more than 60% was generally considered a bad sign for the movie’s long-term prospects, or “playability.” People must not have liked the movie and told friends, family and social media followers to stay away and save their $10.
During the vaccinedriven recovery, however, the majority of big movies that open with decent numbers are falling off a cliff the following week, and there is plenty of blame to go around.
“Space Jam: A New Legacy” opened July 16 with a better-than-expected $31 million domestically to debut at No. 1 but then fell 69% this past weekend to land at No. 4. Before that, “Black Widow” suffered a 68% decline after earning its perch at the top in its first three days. “F9: The Fast Saga” dropped 67% in its second frame.
Welcome to the one-anddone phase of Hollywood’s box-office rebound.
What’s going on? There are many factors, some of
which are obvious, others that are not. The “Space Jam” sequel had poor reviews and is streaming simultaneously on HBO Max for a month at no additional charge, for example. “Black Widow” was available on Disney+ for a $30 upcharge while in theaters. With those movies, if people were waff ling about whether to go to the multiplex, easy online availability gave them a good reason not to.
The National Assn. of Theatre Owners argued that the decay for “Black Widow” was evidence that same-day streaming and premium video on-demand releases were cannibalizing box office and encouraging piracy. As I wrote last week, there’s little doubt that same-day at-home viewing had an effect, but it’s difficult to know how much.
Further, if PVOD and streaming are the culprits, how does one explain the decline of “F9,” which is not yet available in living rooms? Sure, it’s coming to home video earlier than usual, but it’s not likely the average consumer knows that.
What’s still unclear is the lingering effect of the virus on moviegoing, especially with the Delta variant spreading rapidly among the unvaccinated. There’s some evidence that the uptick in cases and hospitalizations, which recently prompted a reinstated mask mandate in Los Angeles County, has made moviegoers more nervous about returning to cinemas.
I’ve heard anecdotally from a few insiders that fears of the virus could be eating into so-called walkup sales. Casual moviegoers who might have been on the fence are now less inclined to go. Super fans (those who flock to movies opening weekend) are still coming out though, making the grosses more front-loaded than usual.
According to the research firm NRG, moviegoers’ comfort going to theaters dropped to 76% from 81% this past week, while the percentage who say they are “very comfortable” going to theaters dropped to 35% from 41%. Still, NRG executive Ethan Titelman said in an email that the bigger issue is the studios’ simultaneous release strategies, shorter theatrical windows and the effects of piracy.
Analysts are largely in agreement on this.
“The market is thin right now,” said David A. Gross, who runs Franchise Entertainment Research, a movie consultancy. “Movies are opening respectably well, but they are not holding up well. There’s COVID, there’s simultaneous streaming, there’s the nature of the movies themselves. There are a number of factors in play, and it’s different for each movie.”
I’m particularly curious about what’s going on with kids movies right now. Before the pandemic, animated films were about as reliable as a genre could get for Hollywood in terms of box office performance. In 2019, three of four top-grossing films domestically — “The Lion King,” “Toy Story 4" and “Frozen 2” — were children’s properties.
But animated movies lately have struggled at the box office, if they’ve played in theaters at all. “The Boss Baby: Family Business,” “Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway” and “Spirit Untamed” all have done uninspiring business.
Maybe those titles wouldn’t have done very well in normal times either. However, I’ve heard from several parents who are nervous about taking their unvaccinated kids to a theater, even if the adults are willing to trek there.
Meanwhile, Disney has been releasing kids movies directly to Disney+ with strong results as it tries to shore up its subscriber base. Pixar’s “Luca,” released on the platform last month, has been tearing up the streaming ratings charts, clocking in with 3.2 billion minutes viewed during its first two weeks in release. That’s equivalent to more than 30 million full views for the 96-minute film.
This all comes as theater owners prepare to gather at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas in late August for CinemaCon, the annual convention that didn’t take place last year. Disney has already said it won’t be sending executives to the conference, citing the COVID-19 threat specifically in Clark County, Nev. It remains to be seen whether other studios will follow suit. Either way, the event is expected to be more subdued than in previous years.
The movie market faces its next test this weekend as Disney releases “Jungle Cruise” with Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt. Like “Black Widow,” it will be available for on-demand viewing on Disney+ for $30.
It’s still not clear how financially viable same-day PVOD releases are for big movies. It’s definitely a trade-off. But with the state of the pandemic and moviegoing, Disney is probably glad it doesn’t have to rely on box office alone.
This article is taken from the July 27 edition of The Wide Shot, a weekly newsletter about everything happening in the business of entertainment. Sign up at