Push-and-pull factors spur San Diego exodus
SAN DIEGO — Cody Barbo never thought he would want to leave San Diego.
But a couple of months ago, the co-founder and chief executive of venturebacked startup Trust & Will relocated with his family to Dallas — a move driven by his ability to work remotely and disillusionment after attempting to purchase a house in San Diego.
“It wasn’t the cost. We could afford a nice house. It was the competitiveness of being able to buy a home,” Barbo said. “We were seeing 20 to 30 offers on some homes. They were all-cash offers, oftentimes 10% to 15% above list price. You just can’t compete with that.”
Barbo isn’t alone in thinking the grass may be greener outside California these days. U.S. Census Bureau data released in March showed San Diego County’s population fell by 11,183 residents from July 2020 to July 2021 — mirroring the wider trend of more people leaving California’s high-priced coastal urban centers.
The data raise questions about whether the state’s expensive metro areas are on the brink of population declines fueled by falling birth rates, lower levels of foreign immigration and more residents fleeing for lower-cost locales. These demographic shifts over time could reshape such things as workforce availability, school funding and job opportunities.
“What this means is that economic development from here on out is really all about labor force expansion,” said Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics in Los Angeles. “And one thing that California is bad at is labor force growth because we just won’t build enough housing. And that has been true for over two decades now.”
To be clear, San Diego is not the epicenter of California’s exodus, which recently caused the state to lose a congressional seat for the first time in its history. San Diego County’s net population loss was well under 1% — 0.3% to be exact — of its 3.28 million residents.
In comparison, Los Angeles County lost nearly 160,000 people, a 1.6% decline. San Francisco shed 55,800 people, or 6.3%. Santa Clara County, which encompasses Silicon Valley, lost 45,000 people, or 2.3%.
Still, this is the first time in at least a decade that San Diego County has lost population year over year, according to California Department of Finance data.
Meanwhile, Riverside and San Bernardino counties gained residents as more folks moved from dense cities to avoid the risk of exposure to COVID-19. Riverside County alone added 35,600 residents.
“Riverside and San Bernardino are growing because people are fleeing L.A.,” said Dowell Myers, a professor of policy, planning and demography at USC. “People are moving out of dense areas. They are moving outward to safer areas, and they’re moving to more affordable housing.”
After renting a townhouse in Point Loma for six years, Barbo, 33, began looking to buy a house in the neighborhood. His family was growing with a 2-yearold daughter. Both he and his wife work full time and believed they could find something.
The competition was intense. Barbo scanned Zillow daily, watching prices soar. At the same time, a few friends and colleagues were moving to other states — particularly low-tax states.
“We started doing the math in California,” Barbo said. “It’s not just the mortgage. We have child-care costs, all these added costs. It is a very expensive place, long-term, to live.”
They widened their search to include Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Nashville and a few cities in Texas. Dallas rose to the top. They purchased a new, 4,300-squarefoot home with a backyard big enough for a playground set and trampoline.
“Within 30 minutes of the Dallas area, you can get a brand-new home — there is so much construction out here — for under $1 million,” Barbo said. “It is a nice, safe community. Good schools. Lots of activities. And people go out of their way to be kind. It’s noticeable.”
The location is near Dallas Love Field, which offers daily flights to San Diego. “I expect to fly back pretty often,” said Barbo, who sought support from Trust & Will’s board of directors before making the move.
The fintech startup, which automates estate planning, remains committed to keeping its headquarters in San Diego, Barbo added. The company grew more comfortable hiring remote employees during the pandemic and now has workers in 20 states.
California lost about 262,000 residents between July 2020 and July 2021, according to the Census Bureau. Of the 10 counties nationwide with the largest population losses, four were in California. New York also had four counties on the list.
U.S. metropolitan statistical areas, which can include multiple counties, that gained the most population last year were DallasFort Worth, Phoenix-Mesa, Greater Houston, AustinRound Rock and RiversideSan Bernardino, according to Census Bureau data.
Nathan Resnick, chief executive of Sourcify, moved from San Diego to Salt Lake City and bought a house there in July 2020.
The company, which helps clients with overseas manufacturing, has had a mostly remote workforce since it was founded in 2017. When the pandemic hit and California rolled out restrictions, Resnick said he found living in San Diego less appealing.
“It was everything, from shutting down the beaches to all the mandates,” he said. “And, too, the taxes sort of played a role — the business environment. Utah is really a pro-business state and very well run. We saw tremendous growth doing business from Utah and Salt Lake through the pandemic.”
Sourcify has one worker remaining in San Diego, down from about 10 at its peak, Resnick said.