Black novice targets Nunes’ old seat
Lourin Hubbard faces former top Assembly Republican in Central Valley House district.
FRESNO — Brian Bobbitt heard whispers in the fall about a water resource manager entering the race to represent the 22nd Congressional District.
It piqued his interest; it could mean a fresh face with key expertise for the Central Valley. So he coldcalled Lourin Hubbard and invited him to lunch.
After some other questions, Bobbitt asked the obvious: “Do you realize you’re Black? A Black person has never ran here!”
Hubbard stared at Bobbitt before slowly nodding his head. “Well, that’s because I’ve never ran here.”
Hubbard is competing in a special election runoff Tuesday to serve out Devin Nunes’ term, which ends in early January. The 33-yearold Democrat faces an uphill climb for several reasons, not least the tiny share of Black voters in a district that has long voted GOP.
Hubbard is trailing his GOP rival in fundraising. And he’s trying to win where seasoned Democratic politicians haven’t succeeded in over two decades.
But he buckled down and assembled a toolkit of Google, his wife, Erin, and a small group of volunteers to get him to Congress.
It’s a long shot, but Hubbard notes, “I’m not even supposed to be this far.”
“He definitely has the odds stacked against him,” said Thomas Holyoke, a political scientist at Fresno State. “This is still a Republican-leaning district.”
Analysts had predicted a familiar name would advance to the runoff with front-runner Connie Conway, a Republican endorsed by former President Trump. But Hubbard placed second in April’s special election, garnering 16,905 votes from Fresno and Tulare counties’ voters in the district.
On a recent weekday in downtown Fresno, Hubbard met with five volunteers at the county’s Democratic Party headquarters. They sat around an oval table and booted up laptops.
They pitched towns that canvassers should hit up next. A former speech and debate coach pointed out where Hubbard should emphasize words and pause for effect. One organizer suggested brainstorming for a “bumper sticker” talking point explaining succinctly why he should be put in office for such a short stint. (Congressional District 22, as it’s currently constituted, won’t exist after this year because redistricting has scattered its voters into surrounding districts.)
“You’re going to get your butt kicked in Tulare County,” Myra Coble, 65, told Hubbard, explaining it’s the nature of the district. “I don’t know how much you want to invest there.”
Joining Hubbard and the volunteers was Ruben Zarate, Fresno County Democratic Party chair, who said “pockets of Democrats” would vote for Hubbard, but it was Conway’s territory. Conway, 71, was on the Tulare County Board of Supervisors and represented the area in the state Assembly.
“A candidate needs to be out everywhere,” said Bobbitt, 66, spreading his arms and fingers. “If something’s going on in town, you just go there.”
Holyoke sees a chance for Hubbard: “If [he] is able to get traditional Democrats and young progressives to vote, and Conway’s voters are like, ‘Eh, who cares about this?’ it’s possible for Hubbard to win.”
Unifying the Democratic Party’s factions has been the challenge.
Hubbard lets out an exasperated sigh when he recounts the times he has tried to explain that young, Black or Latino votes aren’t automatically for Democrats. “Get that out of your head,” he tells older liberals in local Democratic clubs.
“They don’t get it,” Hubbard said. “It takes a little time for them to say, ‘These groups of people, just like anybody, have to be motivated to vote for you.’”
The California Democratic Party endorsed Hubbard in the spring election. But, he said, the “conversation I had with the party after … confirmed there is no cavalry that is coming.”
“I saw it early on [that party officials] were busy fighting amongst themselves, that they couldn’t — they weren’t — going to help me,” Hubbard said.
In an email, Shery Yang, communications director for the state party, said they “look forward to a Democrat representing that region in the coming months.”
There are advantages to competing in a neglected race, said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections.
“Hubbard is running in a district where even if he rallies all Democrats, that’s not enough,” he said. “Step 1 is getting all Democratic voters, and then still getting more. He’s in a race that hasn’t risen to a level of competitiveness that Republicans are waiting to pounce on him or what he’s doing.”
Hubbard is determined to not throw away his shot, betting on new voters to carry him through.
“I think the stars are kind of aligned,” he told his team. “I’m running against an opponent who’s kind of sleeping on us, if you will, and coming out of retirement and wants to be a caretaker.”
The Fresno resident’s confidence hasn’t wavered. He’s the first to admit he has a healthy sense of self.
In his youth, the Bakersfield native lived in the same neighborhood as House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy. His mother was a registered Democrat, but Hubbard identified as Republican and voted for Rudolph W. Giuliani in the 2008 presidential primary. In those days, he shared what he saw as Republicans’ focus on freedom, security and “opportunity for all.”
He voted for Barack Obama that fall and in 2012, but didn’t officially become a Democrat until years later when, he said, the state Department of Motor Vehicles prompted him to update his voter registration.
“As time has gone by, I don’t think my values have changed on those things,” he said. “I just don’t see the Republican Party as the brand for those things [anymore], especially after the nomination of a person like Donald Trump.”
The moment that truly brought Hubbard into politics was in 2016, when Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders entered the presidential race. For the first time, Hubbard gave money, phonebanked and canvassed for a candidate. He did it again for Sanders in 2020.
Then came the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Hubbard initially tried persuading Erin to run for Congress, but she shot that down. So he stepped up.
Hubbard had planned to run against Nunes, and kicked off his campaign last June. When Nunes unexpectedly resigned this Jan. 1, Hubbard decided instead to run in the special election to serve out his term.
Hubbard doesn’t pretend to have it all figured out.
The day before the February deadline to file for the special election, he learned he needed to collect 40 signatures to get his name on the ballot. He was about to quit, but Erin tapped friends to drive around and help them get signatures. In the end, they garnered 30 more than they needed.
Finances have been tough. Hubbard said he and Erin lent the campaign $10,000 to get it started. He raised $71,035 from April 2021 to March 2022, according to the Federal Election Commission. Conway jumped into the race in January, and had brought in $106,733 by March.
“At one point, we were like, ‘How are we going to do this?’ … because it’s just so expensive,” said Erin Hubbard, 29, a school nurse.
Lourin Hubbard hasn’t thought about his future in politics should he lose. For now, he remains undeterred.
At an event at a Fresno park in April for victims of violence, he charmed the audience of 10, drawing cheers and applause as he stepped away from the lectern and walked closer to them.
“I’ll vote Black unless you give me a damn good excuse not to .... Especially if it looks like more hope for my son than this current system has,” said Terry Shelton, 45.
Jayanna Brown sat at the back behind a foldout table displaying stacks of campaign literature. Her cousin organized the commemoration and Brown showed up to help, but said she doesn’t dabble in politics much.
“Politicians always say they’re gonna do something, and they really never follow through with that,” said Brown, 22. “Him just showing up ... I’ve seen he’s serious about the community.”
Others were open to voting for Hubbard, but wanted to vet him one on one.
Johnny Morales, 47, said Hubbard’s pitch to protect area youth resonated with him, but that he would need to hear more.
“We’ll see,” Morales said as he leaned back against his chair.
Campaigning has nearly consumed Hubbard’s life. One evening after his day job, he found himself driving 44 miles south to visit a Democratic Party chapter.
At a Mexican cantina in Visalia, he asked about 20 people to help him flip a red chunk of the valley blue.
He launched into his spiel, explaining how labels within the Democratic Party — liberal, progressive, moderate, Blue Dog — shouldn’t matter in this special race to “uphold democracy.” Values, he said, should be the primary focus.
A man running as a progressive for a seat on the Visalia City Council challenged him. He wasn’t going to vote for just any Democrat, he explained — Democrats would have to actively court him to secure his vote.
Later, Hubbard said that encounter made him sigh: Here we ago again.