Big money, little interest: Primary election takeaways

Money didn’t talk in California’s primary election. It screamed.

In the two most closely watched contests Tuesday, exorbitant sums were spent to oust San Francisco’s district attorney and push billionaire developer Rick Caruso into a runoff with Rep. Karen Bass to become Los Angeles’ next mayor.

Californians are unsettled, anxious and at times livid over homelessness, gas prices, housing costs, crime and all manner of affronts that undermine the state’s golden promise — not to mention their daily lives.

But residents were not upset enough to turn out in decent-sized numbers, or to humble our governor, U.S. senator or most Democrats in Sacramento and Washington who appear headed to easy reelection this fall.

This was not a vote portending some vast sea change; California won’t be turning Republican anytime soon. Absent interest or much voter engagement, cash was king.

Here are five other takeaways from a lackluster election marked by an odd mix of anger and apathy.

An eye on November

As a businessman, Caruso must be pleased with the payback on his $40-million investment. It apparently landed him in first place against Democratic Rep. Bass, who started the L.A. mayor’s race as the front-runner in polls.

In the manner of Hollywood, which loves sequels, it seems we’ve seen this script before: A city in upheaval abandons its left-leaning ways to elect a wealthy businessman who promises to restore order and stability.

We won’t know until November whether Caruso — a convert to the Democratic Party — is the second coming of former GOP Mayor Richard Riordan, or just another in a long line of rich Californians who used their wallets to vault into contention but fell short once voters got a longer look.

A dubious do-over

The ouster of San Francisco Dist. Atty. Chesa Boudin is a setback to criminal justice reform efforts that intensified after police murdered George Floyd in 2020.

It’s also part of a dubious trend — the same impetus behind the attempted recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom and former President Trump’s “Big Lie” — wherein losers refuse to acknowledge election results they don’t like.

Boudin was a political outsider elected in 2019 after promising to reform what he and other progressive prosecutors called an overly punitive justice system that disproportionately jails Black and brown people.

The results of his tenure have been mixed. Murders are up, along with shoplifting and car thefts, but most violent crime remains near historic lows.

Though statistics lack clarity, what is obvious is that monied real estate and tech interests dumped a fortune into short-circuiting San Francisco’s election process. Proponents misled voters, describing the recall as a “Democratic-led effort” and fuzzing up the significant involvement of conservatives and other outside interests eager to discredit the liberal stronghold.

That is not to dismiss the anger leading to Boudin’s recall, or the issues underlying that outrage. The city is a beautiful place with a lot of ugly, deep-seated problems.

But to the extent the district attorney was to blame, his role could — and should — have been litigated when Boudin was to stand for reelection in next year’s regularly scheduled balloting.

Why hold elections if the results can be overturned on a whim of the well-to-do?

The big sleep

There was plenty of time and lots of places to vote. Making things even easier, every eligible California voter was mailed a ballot with a postage-paid return envelope.

Even so, it looks like many saw Tuesday’s election more as a sedative than a summons to civic duty. Fewer than 2 in 10 voters cast ballots, according to preliminary returns.

Which, though disappointing, is not surprising.

Last September, California blew through over $200 million for voters to say, yeah, we really do want Newsom as governor.

The Democrat beat back the recall attempt by nearly the same landslide margin that elected him in 2018.

Soon after, I wrote that his reelection seemed virtually certain, unless he returned to the French Laundry restaurant and opened the coast to oil drilling.

With gas prices pushing $7 a gallon, that might actually work in Newsom’s favor.

Lacking a competitive governor’s race and with Democratic U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla also cruising to reelection, this was about as dozy an election as the state has seen in quite a while.

For the first time in 58 years there was also not a single statewide ballot measure on the primary ballot to coax voters to turn out.

Maybe next time the state can try foot rubs and free candy.

Battleground state

For years, the state’s congressional races were pretty much decided before voters weighed in. Politicians drew district boundaries to maximize their reelection prospects and largely took the decision from constituents.

That changed, however, when a citizen commission took over the redistricting process starting after the 2010 census.

In 2018, California was central to the fight for control of the U.S. House, with Democrats gaining seven seats in the state en route to seizing the majority.

In November, with as many as 10 competitive contests in the state, Democrats are seeking to offset expected losses elsewhere to maintain their tenuous hold.

Republicans are hopeful Tuesday’s early returns hold and two of their endangered incumbents, David Valadao in the Central Valley and Young Kim in Orange County, beat back Trumpy challengers who could give Democrats an edge.

Democrats, for their part, can’t be too pleased with the miserable turnout. If abortion and the Jan. 6 insurrection are supposed to supercharge the party’s base, there was no sign of that in Tuesday’s election.

Party of one

We are deep thinkers, each of us, and individuals of great discernment. (Or so we tell ourselves.) Thus many find it fashionable to abjure party labels, insisting they vote “for the man” or “the woman,” as the case may be, independent of any partisan considerations.

And yet the overwhelming majority of people in most elections vote either Democratic or Republican, the two parties that have ruled American politics for well over a century.

The latest to learn the limits of free agency is Anne Marie Schubert, who flamed out in her cashstarved run for state attorney general.

The Sacramento County district attorney shucked her Republican affiliation a few years back, a seeming prerequisite in California, where “GOP” has meant “DOA” in statewide elections for well over a decade.

Schubert boasted sterling tough-on-crime credentials for helping crack the Golden State Killer case, among other accomplishments during a 30-year law enforcement career.

Still, Schubert had just 8% support, according to preliminary results, finishing far behind GOP attorneys Nathan Hochman and Eric Early.

The two Republicans were battling in the race to face — and most likely lose to — Democratic incumbent Rob Bonta in November.