Cases rising in L.A. again
County’s COVID-19 hospitalization rates also climb as hopes of avoiding surge vanish.
Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are increasing in Los Angeles County, dashing hopes that the nation’s most populous county had turned the corner in the latest Omicron wave.
What appeared to be a possible flattening or decrease in cases may have just been a result of a lag in case reporting over the Memorial Day holiday, and it’s possible that transmission increased from gatherings over that weekend.
“The earlier decrease was likely related to lower testing over the Memorial Day holiday, while the subsequent increase may be related to increased spread associated with travel and gatherings during the long holiday weekend and as we head into summer,” L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said Thursday.
L.A. County is averaging about 5,100 coronavirus cases a day for the weekly period that ended Friday; that’s up 20% from the prior week. On a per capita basis, L.A. County is recording 350 new coronavirus cases a week for every 100,000 residents; a rate of 100 or more is considered a high rate of transmission.
There were 6.4 new coronavirus-positive hospitalizations per week for every 100,000 residents, which is up 21% over the previous week. The current figure places L.A. County in the medium COVID-19 community level as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; once the rate of new weekly hospitalizations hits 10 or more, a county is reclassified as being in a high COVID-19 community level.
Based on existing trends, L.A. County is on track to move by early July into the high COVID-19 community level, and as a result, could see a new universal mask order for indoor settings by early July.
The actual result could change — hospitalizations could accelerate if more people get infected, but it’s also possible that L.A. County could avoid hitting that threshold and not need a new mask mandate again if residents take steps to avoid getting infected or spreading disease.
The outlook for the coming weeks is still difficult to forecast.
In fact, there are some new concerning signs on the horizon, as even newer Omicron variants take root. BA.4 and BA.5, which caused significant growth in viral transmission in South Africa, are increasingly being detected in California and nationwide.
One question that hasn’t been answered is whether the refreshed version of the COVID-19 vaccines being tested by Pfizer and Moderna, which could be distributed for use later in the year, “are going to hold up against BA.4 and BA.5,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House COVID-19 response coordinator, at a UC San Francisco panel discussion last week.
BA.4 and BA.5 are of concern because of their rapid growth detected recently. Nationally, the two variants went from accounting for 1% of viral specimens analyzed nationally to 13% in a single month, according to the CDC.
“This suggests that they may have the ability to outcompete other circulating variants. There’s also concern that they may be able to cause reinfections in people who have already been infected by other Omicron subvariants,” Ferrer said.
Ferrer is also expressing concern at how the coronavirus has again started to spread more thoroughly in disadvantaged neighborhoods, where residents are more vulnerable to COVID-19.