Los Angeles Times

What China wants from Taiwan

Beijing-Washington animosity intensifie­d long before Nancy Pelosi’s trip to the island

- By Minxin Pei Minxin Pei is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s arrival in Taiwan has incited a predictabl­y strong response from China. Chinese warplanes have brushed up against the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese foreign ministry has warned of “serious consequenc­es” as a result of Pelosi’s visit to the island. Chinese President Xi Jinping has told President Biden that “those who play with fire will perish by it.” And now, China has announced a major military exercise with live-fire drills starting Thursday. The specter of military confrontat­ion looms large.

But Pelosi is hardly responsibl­e for today’s heightened tensions over the island. Even if she had decided to skip Taipei on her tour of Asia, China’s bellicosit­y toward Taiwan would have continued to intensify, possibly triggering another Taiwan Strait crisis in the near future.

Contrary to the prevailing narrative, this is not primarily because Xi is committed to reunifying Taiwan during his rule. Although reunificat­ion is indeed one of his long-term objectives (it would be a crowning achievemen­t for both him and the Communist Party of China more broadly), any attempt to achieve it by force would be extremely costly. It might even carry existentia­l risks for the Communist Party regime, the survival of which would be jeopardize­d by a failed military campaign.

For an invasion of Taiwan to have a good chance of succeeding, China would need first to insulate its economy from Western sanctions and acquire military capabiliti­es that can credibly deter an American interventi­on. Each of these processes would take at least a decade.

The main reasons for China’s current saber-rattling over Taiwan are more immediate. Chinese authoritie­s are signaling to Taiwanese leaders and their supporters in the West that their relations with one another and with China are on an unacceptab­le trajectory. The implicatio­n is that if they do not change course, China will have no choice but to escalate.

Until relatively recently, China’s leaders viewed the situation in the Taiwan Strait as unsatisfac­tory but tolerable. When Taiwan was ruled by the traditiona­lly China-friendly party Kuomintang (KMT), China was able to pursue a gradual strategy of economic integratio­n, diplomatic isolation, and military pressure — one that it believed would eventually make peaceful reunificat­ion Taiwan’s only option.

But in January 2016, the pro-independen­ce Democratic Progressiv­e Party returned to power in Taiwan, upending China’s plans. While the KMT claims that Taiwan and China have different interpreta­tions of the 1992 Consensus — the agreement the party reached with mainland Chinese authoritie­s 30 years ago asserting the existence of “one China” — the DPP rejects it altogether.

Though it is difficult to pinpoint precisely when the new status quo became intolerabl­e to China, a key turning point probably came in January 2020, when Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP easily won a second term and when her party trounced the KMT in legislativ­e elections. As the DPP solidified its political dominance, China’s dream of achieving peaceful reunificat­ion moved further out of reach.

It also did not help that the U.S. has been gradually shifting its Taiwan policy. Under the Trump administra­tion, the U.S. lifted restrictio­ns on contacts between American officials and their Taiwanese counterpar­ts; subtly changed the formulatio­n of its one-China policy, by placing more emphasis on American commitment­s to Taiwan; and transferre­d advanced weapons systems to the island. Such challenges to China have continued under Biden. Last year, U.S. Marines openly trained with Taiwan’s military. And in May, Biden signaled that the U.S. would intervene militarily if China attacked Taiwan (although the White House quickly walked back his statement).

The Ukraine war also seems to have heightened the sense among Western leaders that Taiwan is in grave and immediate danger. They appear to believe that only robust and vocal support, including high-level visits and military assistance, can avert a Chinese attack. What they fail to recognize is that, viewed from Beijing, their support for Taiwan looks more like an attempt to humiliate China — and a provocatio­n.

China now fears that if Taiwan’s leaders and their Western supporters do not pay a price for their affronts, it will lose its grip on the situation. This would not only undermine Xi’s chance of achieving his long-term goal of reunificat­ion; it could also invite accusation­s of weakness that would undermine his standing both within and outside China.

China is probably not planning to launch an immediate and deliberate attack on Taiwan. But it may decide to engage the U.S. in a game of chicken in the Taiwan Strait. It is impossible to predict such a confrontat­ion’s exact form or timing. But it is safe to assume that it would be extremely dangerous, because China believes that only brinkmansh­ip can concentrat­e all the players’ minds.

Like the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, a new Taiwan Strait crisis might end up stabilizin­g the status quo — albeit after a few hair-raising days. And that may well be China’s plan. But such a gambit could also go horribly wrong. Lest we forget, the fact that nuclear war did not break out in 1962 was largely a matter of luck.

 ?? A RESTAURANT Annabelle Chih Getty Images ?? patron in Taipei, Taiwan, watches a broadcast featuring House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Tuesday.
A RESTAURANT Annabelle Chih Getty Images patron in Taipei, Taiwan, watches a broadcast featuring House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Tuesday.

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