A delicate dance at the Iowa State Fair
Presidential hopefuls tread lightly amid uncertainty over Trump and Biden.
DES MOINES — Texas Sen. Ted Cruz raised a roasted turkey leg like a sword in his 2014 Iowa State Fair debut, the up-and-coming conservative joining half a dozen other Republican presidential prospects in strolling the Grand Concourse.
Four years later, almost as many Democrats made the pilgrimage to the fair, including former U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, who snaked his way past tables under the Iowa Pork Producers tent at the annual Midwestern tribute to overindulgence.
But as the 2022 fair entered its final weekend, the traffic of 2024 presidential candidates was noticeably light. That speaks to the careful dance potential candidates are attempting, as Democrats remain uncertain about President Biden’s political future and many Republicans avoid taking on former President Trump.
Several would-be GOP candidates have quietly made political inroads in the first-in-the-nation nominating state, but they’ve done so by campaigning with Iowa candidates, not by being so obvious as to stand on straw bales at a perennial stop for White House hopefuls.
“There’s a bit of a ‘Trump effect’ going on. They are still coming here. But they know there needs to be that emphasis that they are here for Iowa Republican candidates,” said Michael Bousselot, a Des Moinesarea GOP state representative and former top aide to Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds. “The fair is more in-your-face campaigning. If you’re too overeager, people might say, ‘Whoa, President Trump is still the guy.’ ”
Former Vice President Mike Pence visited the fair on Des Moines’ workingclass east side on Friday, and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a prominent Trump critic, was there last week.
A cowboy-boot-wearing Pence was escorted by seven-term Republican Sen. Charles E. Grassley, who has attended with countless White House prospects over the years. Pence was careful, however, to keep his political remarks focused on the November midterm election, when Grassley is on the ballot, and not on the 2024 presidential race.
“It’s an honor to be here at the Iowa State Fair with you,” he told Grassley, surrounded by reporters and photographers. “Iowa and America need six more years of Chuck Grassley.”
Pence later got caught in a fast-developing thunderstorm, which soaked him and his entourage as they sought shelter under the Iowa Pork Producers tent. Undeterred, Pence waded through the crowds of damp fairgoers and even got in a few bites of one of the event’s signature hand-held caloric monstrosities. As hail pummeled the roof, he sampled a “picnic in a cup”: pulled pork, coleslaw, baked beans and Fritos, topped with barbecue sauce and bacon.
Politicians’ food choices and attire at the Iowa State Fair are almost as important as the visits themselves.
In 2003, Democrat John F. Kerry ordered a strawberry smoothie, notable at an event known for its celebration of meat and deepfried foods. In 2007, Republican Fred Thompson was
mocked for sporting Gucci loafers, which stood out among the flip-flops and cowboy boots.
Hogan chowed down on a grilled pork chop — a rite of passage for any White House aspirant — as he meandered through the fair last week with Reynolds, his fellow governor. Despite the smiles, the pair painted an awkward political picture. Reynolds, heavily favored to win reelection in November, is backed by Trump and is a devoted supporter of the former president.
The dynamic reflects both the state GOP’s proTrump lean and the lurking liabilities for the former president.
A majority of Iowa Republicans — 57% — said they hope Trump decides to run for president in 2024, according to a July Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. One-third said they hope he doesn’t.
Trump has enjoyed his kingmaker status over the last few months, boosting his endorsed candidates to victory in primary elections ranging from top of the ticket to state legislature. And while he faces a number of swirling investigations, including scrutiny from a U.S. Department of Justice search of his Florida home for classified documents, the question of a candidacy announcement is when, rather than if, aides say.
Kevin Holmes, a Republican from central Iowa, would “absolutely” consider supporting an alternative to Trump in the 2024 caucuses.
“I’m just not happy with Trump’s character,” the 61-year-old retired police officer said while touring the fair with his wife. “He’s alienated an awful lot of people. If there were a viable alternative, I wouldn’t hesitate to get on board.”
While Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — a common Trump alternative mentioned by Iowa Republicans — has steered clear of Iowa as he seeks reelection in November, others, such as Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo, have visited the state this summer to campaign for Reynolds, Grassley and others.
On Thursday, Cruz was in the northern Iowa resort town of Clear Lake, headlining a private fundraiser for Grassley.
Cruz, who won the 2016 caucuses and campaigned deep into that primary season, said this month that he would wait to see what Trump’s plans were before entertaining a second presidential campaign. He suggested that a Trump candidacy would keep several prospects from entering the 2024 race.
With that in mind, Cruz was in and out of Iowa in one day, avoiding the fair by 110 miles.
‘They are still coming here. But they know there needs to be that emphasis that they are here for Iowa Republican candidates.’
— Michael Bousselot, GOP state representative, on prospective presidential candidates