Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”

James Cameron, “Avatar: The Way of Water”

Guillermo del Toro, “Pinocchio” Damien Chazelle, “Babylon” Sarah Polley, “Women Talking”

Steven Spielberg will be nominated for his fable, whereas James Gray, for his more sincere, autobiographical “Armageddon Time,” ought to but won’t. Cameron, Chazelle and Del Toro will likely get noms, though only Del Toro has it coming. Polley could break in.