Sure things:

“The Fabelmans” “Everything Everywhere All at Once” “Top Gun: Maverick” “The Banshees of Inisherin” “Elvis” “Avatar: The Way of Water” “Tár”

Vying for the remaining three spots: “Women Talking” “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” “The Woman King”

“All Quiet on the Western Front” “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” “RRR” “Triangle of Sadness” “Babylon”

It’s easy to look ahead and envision Oscar pundits’ heads exploding when “Top Gun: Maverick” wins the Producers Guild honor, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” takes the Screen Actors Guild Awards’ ensemble prize and Steven Spielberg is feted by the Directors Guild for “The Fabelmans.” Chaos! Who will win best picture??? (“The Banshees of Inisherin,” of course.)

How voters fill out the back end of their ballots is anyone’s guess. The strong showing for Edward Berger’s grisly adaptation of “All Quiet on the Western Front” in the Oscar shortlists turned some heads. (Makeup and hairstyling? Well, there is a lot of grime on the soldiers’ faces.) It’s certainly blunt enough in its antiwar messaging, adding some unnecessary plotting to Erich Maria Remarque’s perfect novel. But in a year when maximalist movies are in fashion, maybe that kind of narrative pummeling puts it over the top. In that vein, there are even X lesser options — ahem, “Babylon” — available. X