Brace for surprises, including a possibly noisy ‘All Quiet’
Oscar nominations arrive bright and early Tuesday morning and, judging from the conversations I’ve had with film academy members, there are going to be a lot of surprises when the slate is revealed. There’s no best picture front-runner and loyalties are splintered in a dozen different directions. Someone even put “Don’t Worry Darling” at the top of their ballot. Welcome to the Victory Project? Probably not, but points for originality!
One producer voter told me that he had trouble finding 10 movies to put on his best picture ballot, a reflection either on his lack of enthusiasm for this season’s field or perhaps that he had watched “Top Gun: Maverick” 13 times and didn’t bother with other contenders. Another told me that she could have put any one of 20 movies on her best picture ballot — and any one of five in the top slot. “No sequels, though,” she sniffed. “The Oscars should be about original ideas.”
Of course, the Oscars should be a lot of things — recognizing excellence in every field of filmmaking, glitz and glamour, remaining in your seat even after a comedian insults your wife with a lame joke — but they usually fall short. I took that into account when putting together these nomination predictions for key categories. And you should certainly remember it before you let anything the academy does enrage you. Forget it, Jake. It’s the Oscars.
PICTURE
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
“Avatar: The Way of Water” “The Banshees of Inisherin” “Elvis” “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“The Fabelmans” “Tár”
“Top Gun: Maverick” “Triangle of Sadness” “The Whale”
Possible snub: “Triangle
of Sadness”
Possible surprise: Too many to mention
Some people are a little freaked out that “Avatar: The Way of Water” missed the cut with the Directors Guild, but that probably had more to do with its late-breaking arrival than any resistance to space whales or petty jealousies relating to James Cameron amassing another mountain of money. It’s a (pretty) sure bet to be nominated, alongside the other locks: “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Elvis,” “Tár” and “The Fabelmans.”
After that, you could make a case for any of 10 contenders to fill the remaining three spots. Keeping my expectations low, I’m going to go with the three movies that took the greatest pains to bludgeon audiences with their themes — “All Quiet on the Western Front” (war is hell!), “The Whale” (empathy is essential!) and “Triangle of Sadness” (vomiting is hilarious!). In this case, I’m with my producer friend: I’d rather watch “Top Gun: Maverick” another dozen times than sit through these three films again. Here’s hoping that voters prove me wrong and nominate “Aftersun,” “Women Talking” and “RRR” instead.
DIRECTOR
James Cameron, “Avatar: The Way of Water” Todd Field, “Tár” Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, a.k.a. Daniels, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin” Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”
Possible snub: Cameron
Possible surprise:
Baz Luhrmann, “Elvis”
Directors branch voters have rewarded an international filmmaker four years in a row, making it tempting to pick German director Edward Berger for the visceral onslaught he brought to “All Quiet on the Western Front.” Or maybe there’s a path for “RRR’s” S.S. Rajamouli, a master of exuberant spectacle. Or perhaps voters will finally honor the brand name of exuberant spectacle, Luhrmann. Women have won the last two years. Are they really going to be shut out in 2023? (Asking for Sarah Polley, Charlotte Wells and Gina PrinceBythewood, among others.) All that said ... I’m sticking with Cameron, the director who moved the digital realm of the art form forward.
Possible snub: Williams Possible surprise:
Ana de Armas, “Blonde”
Four hours before nominations voting closed, Amy Adams led a virtual conversation with Andrea Riseborough to support her searing turn as an addict in “To Leslie,” a movie that premiered in March at South by Southwest and grossed $27,000 in its brief theatrical run. The word “amazing” was used at least a dozen times — and not without justification. Adams’ support followed a similar event moderated by Kate Winslet, who gushed: “You should be up for everything. You should be winning everything . ... I think this is the greatest female performance on-screen I have ever seen in my life.” Unfortunately, not many voters have seen it, making the grassroots campaign for Riseborough a bittersweet affair. This is a category packed with powerhouse performances, leaving many wondering whether Williams’ SAG Awards snub will be repeated at the Oscars. As much as De Armas deserves some reward for gutting her way through Andrew Dominik’s
wretched Marilyn Monroe biopic, I think Williams will earn her fifth Oscar nod for giving “The Fabelmans” its heart and soul.
LEAD ACTOR
Austin Butler, “Elvis” Colin Farrell,
“The Banshees of Inisherin” Brendan Fraser,
“The Whale”
Tom Hanks,
“A Man Called Otto”
Bill Nighy, “Living” Possible snub: Hanks Possible surprise: Paul Mescal, “Aftersun”
Butler, Farrell, Fraser and Nighy will earn nominations — all coming in as first-timers. Looking at the other contenders, it’s easier laying out why they won’t be nominated than making a case for their inclusion. Mescal: Too young, plus the movie is more filmmakerdriven. Does Tom Cruise really warrant a nod for playing “Tom Cruise” in “Top Gun: Maverick”? No. He’ll get his reward as a producer of the film. Hugh Jackman in “The Son”? Dear God, not for that horrible, manipulative movie. I’m going to go a*
little nuts and predict ... Hanks for an elevated Hallmark movie that made a theater full of academy members cry back in December. That might be just enough in this field. (Unless it’s Adam Sandler for “Hustle.” Who doesn’t love the Sandman?!?)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Hong Chau, “The Whale” Kerry Condon,
“The Banshees of Inisherin” Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Possible snub: Hsu Possible surprise: Jessie Buckley, “Women Talking”
“Women Talking” belongs in the conversation for the year’s best ensemble, so it feels just plain wrong that not one member of its cast could show up among the nominees. Buckley brought a caustic wit and ferocious spirit to Polley’s brilliant drama. I do wonder how many acting branch voters saw the movie, and will they (can they?) focus on just one cast member in marking
their ballots? Both questions give me pause.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano,
“The Fabelmans” Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin” Judd Hirsch,
“The Fabelmans” Barry Keoghan,
“The Banshees of Inisherin” Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Possible snub: Hirsch
Possible surprise:
Eddie Redmayne, “The Good Nurse”
I haven’t mentioned Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon” yet, a hyperventilated ode to cinema undone by its director’s indulgence. It does have a cadre of passionate supporters, though, and perhaps actors branch members will buy into Brad Pitt’s charismatic turn as a movie star facing a career crossroads. You couldn’t avoid seeing him at the Globes, that’s for sure. Meanwhile, Hirsch isn’t in “The Fabelmans” much, but I can’t help remembering the audience at the premiere erupting into applause after his big scene. It’s commanding and unforgettable,
much like Judi Dench’s brief Oscar-winning turn in “Shakespeare in Love.” I think that’s enough to get him in.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“All Quiet on the Western Front,” Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, Ian Stokell “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” Rian Johnson “Living,” Kazuo Ishiguro “She Said,” Rebecca Lenkiewicz “Women Talking,” Sarah Polley
Possible snub: “All Quiet on the Western Front” Possible surprise: “The Whale,” Samuel D. Hunter
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” showed up on USC Libraries’ Scripter awards list for its wildly inventive spin on the classic folk tale and could well surprise here, though writers branch voters haven’t gone out of their way to reward animated movies in the past. (“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On” is another animated possibility here.) And if “All Quiet” pulls in a nod — and Berger gets in for director — then the wideopen best picture race will have a new wrinkle for people to obsess over.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Aftersun,” Charlotte Wells “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Martin McDonagh “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert “The Fabelmans,” Tony Kushner, Steven Spielberg “Tár,” Todd Field
Possible snub:
“The Fabelmans”
Possible surprise:
“Triangle of Sadness,” Ruben Östlund
Kushner’s gritty adaptation of “West Side Story” didn’t make the screenplay cut last year, despite the film’s seven nominations. Could a similar fate await “The Fabelmans”? Some — and not just Joyce Carol Oates — found the story’s structure a bit wonky and didn’t groove on its episodic framework. Of course, it’d be silly if they left it out and nominated “Triangle of Sadness” instead, a movie that’s explicitly episodic, not to mention facile, flat and strident.
ANIMATED FEATURE
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
“Marcel the Shell With Shoes On”
“My Father’s Dragon” “Puss in Boots:
The Last Wish” “Turning Red”
Possible snub: “My Father’s Dragon”
Possible surprise: “Wendell & Wild”
“Pinocchio” already has the feel of the inevitable winner. The only question is whether Henry Selick and Jordan Peele’s stop-motion collaboration, “Wendell & Wild,” will join the party as a nominee.