Stocks end mixed as banking firms stabilize; bond yields rise
Wall Street held steady Monday ahead of a week full of reports on some of the market’s biggest worries, including how stubbornly high inflation remains across the economy.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index edged up by 1.87, or less than 0.1%, to 4,138.12 coming off its worst week in nearly two months. The Dow Jones industrial average slipped 55.69 points, or 0.2%, to 33,618.69, while the Nasdaq composite added 21.50 points, or 0.2%, to close at 12,256.92.
Besides a strong reading on U.S. jobs, which calmed worries about a possible recession but raised concerns about high inflation, last week was dominated by fears about smaller and midsize banks.
PacWest Bancorp rose 3.6% to recover some of its 43% plunge last week. It said Friday night that it’s cutting its dividend to help build its financial strength. Several other smaller and midsize banks also rose, including a 0.6% tick higher for Western Alliance Bancorp.
They’ve been under heavy pressure as Wall Street hunts for the next weak link after the failures of three U.S. banks since March. Weighed down by much higher interest rates, banks are scrambling to assure Wall Street that their deposits are secure and not at threat of seeing a sudden exodus similar to the runs that toppled Silicon Valley Bank and others.
The larger concern for markets is that all the turmoil for banks could cause them to pull back on their lending. That in turn could raise the risk of a recession that many investors already see as highly likely.
A report from the Federal Reserve on Monday showed that many banks tightened their lending standards during the first three months of the year. The survey also suggested that banks widely expect to raise their standards over the course of 2023. Among the reasons that some smaller and midsize banks gave for the forecast were wanting to take less risk and worries about deposit outflows.
Weighing down Wall Street on Monday were stocks of companies that turned in worse-than-expected results for the first three months of the year.
Tyson Foods tumbled 16.4% after it reported a loss for the latest quarter, instead of the profit that analysts had forecast. Its revenue also fell short of expectations.
This earnings reporting season, the trend has been to beat analysts’ forecasts. Apple was last week’s highlight, and its better-than-expected report helped the market immensely because its stock is Wall Street’s largest and packs the most weight on the S&P 500 and other indexes.
Six Flags Entertainment jumped 18.6% on Monday after it reported a loss that wasn’t as bad as analysts expected. It also said attendance was improving.
Expectations were broadly quite low, though, given high interest rates and a slowing economy. Like Apple, companies across the S&P 500 are on track to report a drop in profit for the latest quarter versus a year earlier.
In an encouraging signal, more companies than usual have been offering forecasts for upcoming results that were above Wall Street’s expectations. The ratio of such preannouncements is at its highest level in two years, equity strategist Savita Subramanian said in a BofA Global Research report, and analysts expect earnings growth to resume in the third quarter of this year.
That’s helped to steady stocks despite all the worries about much higher interest rates. The S&P 500 has been roughly churning in place since early April. It hasn’t had a weekly gain or loss of at least 1% since March, its longest stretch in nearly two years, said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E-Trade from Morgan Stanley.
The Fed has catapulted its benchmark interest rate to a range of 5% to 5.25%, up from virtually zero early last year, in hopes of slowing high inflation. High rates do that by slowing the economy and hurting prices for investments, which runs the risk of causing a recession if they stay too high for too long.
The Fed said last week that it’s not sure of its next move, as swaths of the economy have shown sharp slowdowns but the job market remains largely resilient.
Also hanging over the economy is the threat of a default by the U.S. government on its debt.
Such an event would rock financial markets because U.S. Treasurys are seen as the safest possible investment in the world. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday that there are “no good options” for the United States to avoid an economic “calamity” if Congress fails to raise the nation’s borrowing limit of $31.381 trillion in the coming weeks.
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.51% from 3.44% late Friday. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.
The two-year Treasury, which moves more on expectations for Fed action, rose to 3.99% from 3.92%.
Later this week, the U.S. government will give the latest monthly updates on inflation at the consumer and wholesale levels. Earnings reports will also arrive from Duke Energy, Walt Disney Co. and News Corp.