Mage might make major move toward greatness
Derby winner seeks second leg of Triple Crown, one of many Preakness storylines.
There is little time to reflect on who won the Kentucky Derby before the second leg of the Triple Crown, which occurs two weeks later. It’s a little more than a week after when entries are drawn Monday for the 148th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.
The obvious yet easy question to answer first: Could there be a Triple Crown winner this year?
There is only one horse that could win the Triple Crown, Mage, winner of the Derby. Last year, there wasn’t a question to be asked as Derby winner Rich Strike didn’t run in the Preakness. Instead, he waited for the Belmont Stakes, where he finished sixth.
Thirty-six horses have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, yet only 13 have gone on to win the Belmont Stakes and the Triple Crown. BetOnline posted odds of 6-1 that Mage will win the Triple Crown. It means bet $100 to make a profit of $600. The odds no one will win the Triple Crown are 1-10.
Many believe the most difficult of the three races to win is the Kentucky Derby. And without that win, there is no Triple Crown discussion. The Preakness is onesixteenth of a mile shorter and the field is much smaller. Despite legend, the turns are not tighter at Pimlico. Horses that are in top form should still have that form two weeks later.
This will be the top storyline on everyone’s mind leading up to the Preakness Stakes on Saturday. Here
are some other questions that likely will be asked.
How many Derby horses will run?
The field for the Preakness will not be set until Monday, but it looks as if only two horses that ran in the Derby will do the short turnaround. There is Mage, winner of the race, and Disarm, who finished fourth.
Two of the horses are gifted in by winning major races at other tracks owned by the Stronach Group. Chase the Chaos qualified by winning the El Camino Real at Golden Gate but then followed it up by placing seventh in the San Felipe Stakes and eighth in the California Derby. Perform won the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel
Park about a month ago.
Each qualifying race has had one Preakness winner. Rombauer won both races two years ago and Deputed Testimony did the same in 1983.
Blazing Sevens (third in the Blue Grass), First Mission (won the Lexington), National Treasure (fourth in Santa Anita Derby), Coffeewithchris (fifth in Federico Tesio) and Red Route One (won Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn) also are well rested, having not raced in the Kentucky Derby.
Will Baffert attend the Preakness?
This will be Bob Baffert’s first appearance at a Triple Crown race in two years. He ran Medina Spirit in the
Preakness two years ago but didn’t attend to avoid being a distraction. The sport’s only active two-time Triple Crown-winning trainer was suspended for two years by Churchill Downs after Medina Spirit tested positive for a banned race-day medication following his Kentucky Derby win. The Preakness let Baffert run a horse that year, and New York suspended the trainer after it was clear he wouldn’t have an entry in the Belmont Stakes.
Last year, he was serving a 90-day suspension during the Triple Crown weeks because of Medina Spirit’s failed test. He continues to litigate the disqualification and suspension, even though he’s served it. He’ll bring to the Preakness National
Treasure, who has been running high-quality races but hasn’t won since his maiden start.
Will horse deaths still be an issue?
It always will be an issue as no track is immune to the most disturbing part of the sport. If the seven horse deaths that occurred at Churchill Downs in the leadup to the Derby had happened at a different time of year, it likely would not have been a national issue.
Kentucky has no transparency when it comes to horse fatalities, unlike California and New York, which make deaths public on websites. Churchill Downs won’t allow the Equine Injury Database (EID) to make its racing death statistics public.
Maryland has not been immune to deaths this year. Pimlico’s sister track, Laurel Park, closed for a few days to inspect the track after five horses were euthanized. As is usually the case, no cause was found. Laurel reopened and racing has moved to Pimlico, which has only 15 racing days this year, sandwiched around the Preakness.
According to the EID, which doesn’t include training deaths or non-racing accidents in its survey, Pimlico had one racing death in 21 days of racing last year.
Any horses that might surprise?
With only 10 or fewer horses in the race, everyone will get a look. The Steve Asmussen-trained Disarm finished a good-looking fourth in the Kentucky Derby. And you’ve got to take any Baffert-trained horse seriously, so National Treasure deserves attention.
Baffert has won the Preakness seven times, so he knows the way to the winner’s circle.
Trainer Chad Brown is bringing Blazing Sevens after skipping the Kentucky Derby.
Brown won the race last year with Early Voting and in 2017 with Cloud Computing after neither ran in the Derby.
The formula seems to be working.
“[Blazing Sevens] is coming into the race fresh,” Brown told the Preakness media office. “He is coming in with a full tank of gas. Off his most recent work I see him moving forward off the Blue Grass [where he finished third]. The horse is as good as I have ever seen him.”
Plus, he gets the services of Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.