Democrats struggle to rework primaries
Party has OKd Biden’s plan to change order states vote, but some of them are balking.
WASHINGTON — New Hampshire is in open rebellion. Georgia is all but out.
South Carolina and Nevada are on board but face stiff Republican pushback. Michigan’s compliance may mean a shorter legislative session in a state where Democrats control both chambers and the governor’s mansion.
Then there’s Iowa, still hoping to go first without breaking party rules.
Months after the Democratic Party approved President Biden’s plan to overhaul primaries to better ref lect a diverse voter base, implementing the revamped order has proved anything but simple. Party officials expect the process to continue through the end of the year as the 2024 presidential race heats up.
“Despite the fact that it looked like relatively smooth sailing for the president when he proposed it ... the kind of backlash you’re hearing, the reactions, are exactly what we would have expected,” said David Redlawsk, political science chair at the University of Delaware and co-author of “Why Iowa? How Caucuses and Sequential Elections Improve the Presidential Nominating Process.”
The Democratic National Committee says it is not too concerned by the uncertainty, in part because
Biden faces only minor primary challengers: self-help author Marianne Williamson and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Biden’s political advisors say he doesn’t plan to campaign extensively until the general election. But the primary calendar drama could make it harder for Democrats to project unity before 2024 — and might spell trouble for 2028, when the party promises to revisit it.
Jim Roosevelt, co-chair of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, said the objections from Iowa and New Hampshire weren’t surprising since they’re losing their leadoff spots. He said the committee is “definitely able to work around” the protests of Republicans in places adjusting to new rules or new slots on the calendar.
“I think having a sitting president is the most likely time to make a fundamental change to make the process more representative,” said Roosevelt. He noted the party last enforced a new calendar order before the competitive 2008 primary.
It may get that chance again soon, with no Democratic incumbent to run during a potential reordering for 2028. Another long, contentious calendar process then may mean real electoral consequences, and could make it hard for the party’s presidential hopefuls to know where to campaign and advertise.
But the prospect of another drawn-out fight probably won’t deter the party, Roosevelt said.
The DNC has no plans to alter the 2024 lineup approved in February that strips Iowa of the leadoff spot its caucuses have held since 1972, replacing it with South Carolina’s primary on Feb. 3. New Hampshire and Nevada, which is scrapping caucuses for a primary, were to share the second slot, voting three days later.
Georgia’s primary is slated next, on Feb. 13, with Michigan’s two weeks after that.
Most of the rest of the country would vote on Super Tuesday in early March — giving the earlier states an enormous say in which candidates make it that far.
But New Hampshire is threatening to jump ahead, pointing to its law mandating that it hold the first presidential primary — something Iowa has circumvented for five decades because it holds caucuses.
And Georgia may not take its place in the new top five because Republicans there have rejected calls to move their primary to Democrats’ new date.
Although South Carolina Democrats are set to go first, Republicans there have delayed the GOP primary until three weeks later, on Feb. 24.
In Nevada, Republicans have sued to maintain partyrun caucuses even as the state shifts to a primary system. Michigan has approved its date, but its Legislature may need to adjourn early.
Iowa has proposed continuing to hold caucuses before primaries, and perhaps not releasing results until later to defer to new rules.
This year’s shakeup followed a meltdown at the 2020 Iowa caucuses, after which the state proposed allowing Democrats to submit their presidential choices by mail rather than continuing to require in-person participation.
Scott Brennan, an Iowa lawyer and member of the DNC’s rules committee, said his state “knew the deck was stacked” against it from the start of the calendar shakeup — but Democrats there have tried to avoid open defiance of national party plans.
“We’re trying to remain flexible as long as we can,” Brennan said, “to see if there’s a way to fix this.”
Republicans still plan to lead their 2024 primary with Iowa’s caucuses; the state GOP could set its date next month. That would let the state’s Democrats schedule their caucuses, possibly with plans to hold the results.
Iowa Democrats hope their flexible attitude might help win back a spot in the party’s first five states, if Georgia and New Hampshire vacate their spots. Iowa would fill a potential gap between Nevada’s Feb. 6 vote and Michigan’s on Feb. 27; however, Roosevelt said such a scenario is unlikely.
“I give Iowa a lot of credit for trying to work flexibly,” he said. “If Iowa were to find a way to fully comply with the new rules, that would be considered. Frankly I think it’s too late for that.”
He noted that one reason the largely white state was moved from the No. 1 spot “was demographics, and that’s not going to change.”
New Hampshire is striking a harsher tone, saying its Republican governor and GOP-controlled Legislature won’t change the law that requires it to hold the nation’s first primary.
“We don’t have a choice to delay the primary. Maybe Iowa’s different,” said New
Hampshire Democratic National Committeeman Bill Shaheen.
If New Hampshire moves forward with its plan to go first and Biden opts not to campaign there, one of his challengers may see a bump in support. That could be embarrassing to the president, though his supporters point to polling showing the state’s primary is far from competitive.
“I don’t think the DNC is going to do anything that’s going to change what we’re going to do,” Shaheen said. “We just don’t like getting pushed around much.”
Biden’s campaign has refused to discuss his primary challengers or whether they might be buoyed by an unsanctioned New Hampshire primary. Iowa Democrats, in contrast, have suggested listing Biden among presidential preferences in their caucuses whether he campaigns there or not.
Redlawsk said the fact that Democrats have made it this far in their calendar shakeup means “the battle will continue, but I think it’s far more likely that change will now happen” and that the impact could be profound.
“These early states really do condition the campaign. The early states don’t guarantee a winner, but they tell us who is going to lose, at least in the first rounds,” Redlawsk said. “The winnowing is very likely to be different if the first state is South Carolina, or Nevada, or some combination, than if it were Iowa or New Hampshire.”