FARMER’S PICKS
The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 11-5 (.688); season 38-26 (.594). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 7-9 (.438); season 30-34 (.469). Off: Chargers, Browns, Seahawks, Buccaneers. All times Pacific.
Commanders 27, Bears 17
TV: Amazon Prime Video
Line: Commanders by 51⁄2. O/U: 441⁄2. The Commanders are better. QB Justin Fields got hot last Sunday against a bad Denver defense. Washington is a more formidable opponent and should be able to handle this at home.
Bills 28, Jaguars 23
TV: NFL Network (in London)
Line: Bills by 51⁄2. O/U: 481⁄2. Losing cornerback Tre’Davious White to a torn Achilles hurts the Bills, but that Buffalo defense still is really tough. The Jaguars will hang in there, but QB Josh Allen will help his team pull away.
Ravens 23, Steelers 18
TV: Channel 2
Line: Ravens by 4. O/U: 381⁄2.
Even with the injuries piling up, the Ravens keep winning. Go with the team that has the best player on the field, and that’s Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. Still, this always seems to be a close game.
Patriots 21, Saints 17
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Saints by 1. O/U: 40.
The Saints have yet to score more than 20 points. The Patriots are coming off the biggest blowout loss in Bill Belichick’s career. Go with the Hall of Fame coach bouncing back from embarrassment.
Texans 24, Falcons 20
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Falcons by 21⁄2. O/U: 411⁄2. Coach DeMeco Ryans has his young defense on point, and C.J. Stroud has looked like the best rookie QB by far. QB Desmond Ridder is struggling in Atlanta, although the Falcons do have weapons.
Lions 27, Panthers 16
TV: NFL
Ticket1
Line: Lions by 9 ⁄ . O/U: 44 1 ⁄ . 2 2
The Lions are legit. Carolina’s defense is hanging in there, but the offense is awful. Detroit is way too physical and can run and pass. QB Jared Goff has looked great, and his defense has improved.
Titans 24, Colts 21
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Titans by 1. O/U: 421⁄2.
Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson was impressive in fighting back against the Rams last Sunday. Difficult to know what you’re getting from the Titans. They look lousy then great. Go with experience.
Dolphins 31, Giants 20
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Dolphins by 101⁄2. O/U: 491⁄2.
The Giants have massive problems, especially along the offensive line where they have used huge draft capital yet gave up 11 sacks to Seattle. The Dolphins figure to bounce back after a lackluster loss.
Eagles 27, Rams 23
TV: Channel 11
Line: Eagles by 41⁄2. O/U: 501⁄2. Matthew Stafford showed his toughness in an overtime win at Indianapolis and got it done with a cobbled-together crew. But the Eagles are so good in the trenches, it’s hard to bet against them.
Bengals 24, Cardinals 20
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Bengals by 3. O/U: 441⁄2. Tanking doesn’t work in the NFL, not with players playing for their careers every season. Arizona is a prime example, much tougher than people thought. Still, the struggling Bengals have more talent.
Chiefs 30, Vikings 24
TV: Channel 2
Line: Chiefs by 51⁄2. O/U: 531⁄2.
Both offenses can put up points, but Kansas City’s defense is significantly better than Minnesota’s. If the Chiefs get an occasional stop, force a field goal here or there, that could be the difference.
Jets 23, Broncos 17
TV: NFL Ticket
Line: Broncos by 11⁄2. O/U: 431⁄2.
Even though they lost to Kansas City, the Jets turned a corner in believing in QB Zach Wilson. He got the ball out and knew where to go with it. Denver still is finding its way, and that defense is vulnerable.
49ers 28, Cowboys 20
TV: Channel 4
Line: 49ers by 31⁄2. O/U: 45.
The 49ers are the most complete team in the league. Watch Christian McCaffrey. They will try to put the game on Dak Prescott’s shoulders — just as they have in 49ers playoff wins the last two years.
Raiders 24, Packers 20
TV: ESPN
Line: Packers by 11⁄2. O/U: 441⁄2.
Both teams are coming off dispiriting divisional losses. The Packers are notoriously slow starters and that could get them in trouble, especially if the Raiders get quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo back.