No surprises in inflation report; stocks rise

The Standard & Poor’s 500 rose to its best level in nearly 23 months, just a bit below its record high, after a report on Tuesday showed inflation in the United States is behaving pretty much as expected.

The benchmark index climbed 0.5% to sit just 3.2% below its all-time high set at the start of last year. The Dow Jones industrial average added 173 points, or 0.5%, and the Nasdaq composite rose 0.7%.

Major tech stocks helped lead the way after solid gains for Nvidia, Meta Platforms and some of Wall Street’s other largest and most influential stocks. They overshadowed a 12.4% tumble for Oracle, whose revenue for the latest quarter fell short of analysts’ forecasts.

But Wall Street’s spotlight was on the inflation report, which showed that the prices paid by U.S. consumers for gasoline, food and other living costs last month were 3.1% higher than a year earlier. That was a slight deceleration from October’s 3.2% inflation rate and exactly in line with economists’ expectations.

The data probably change nothing about what the Federal Reserve will do at its latest meeting on interest rates, which ends Wednesday. The widespread expectation is still for the Fed to keep its main interest rate steady.

The Fed has already yanked its main interest rate from virtually zero early last year to more than 5.25%, its highest level since 2001. It’s hoping to slow the economy and hurt investment prices by exactly the right amount: enough to stamp out high inflation but not so much that it causes a steep recession.

Recently rising hopes that the Fed can manage such an “immaculate” landing for the economy have helped stocks to rally and bets to rise that the Fed’s next move on interest rates will be a cut sometime in 2024, perhaps as early as March.

Cuts to interest rates can juice prices for stocks and other investments, while offering more oxygen for the overall economy and financial system.

After the inflation report, traders were betting on a nearly 42% chance that the Fed will cut rates by March, according to data from CME Group. But a minority are also still betting that rates could stay high for longer than expected.

Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, pointed to a slight acceleration in inflation when looking at how prices changed from October into November rather than from a year earlier.

“Simply put,” she said, “this isn’t enough inflation deceleration to reassert or justify the market’s policy easing expectations,” particularly when the job market remains solid.

In the bond market, Treasury yields were mixed after the inflation data. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.20% from 4.24% late Monday.

The two-year yield, which moves more on expectations for action from the Fed, held steady at 4.71%.

On Wall Street, Choice Hotels International fell 1.9% after it said it’s taking its buyout offer for Wyndham Hotels & Resorts directly to its rival’s shareholders. Choice already owns 1.5 million shares of Wyndham, whose board has cited concerns about value and regulatory approval while rebuffing Choice in the past.

Toymaker Hasbro slipped 1.1% after it announced additional job cuts as part of its cost-cutting program.

On the winning side, Centene rose 2.8% for one of the bigger gains in the S&P 500. The managed-care company gave a forecast for earnings in 2024 that topped analysts’ expectations, and it also authorized a program to buy back up to $4 billion more of its stock.

Icosavax soared 49.5% after AstraZeneca said it would buy the biopharmaceutical company for at least $838 million in cash, with the price tag rising if certain milestones are met.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 21.26 points to 4,643.70. The Dow added 173.01 points to close at 36,577.94, and the Nasdaq advanced 100.91 points to 14,533.40.

In stock markets abroad, indexes held relatively steady in Europe and mostly rose in Asia.

The FTSE 100 in London was virtually unchanged after the Office for National Statistics reported a sharp slowdown in growth for wages. That could help weigh on inf lation and shape the Bank of England’s upcoming decision on interest rates Thursday.

Crude oil prices fell, taking some more pressure off inf lation. The cost of a barrel of benchmark U.S. crude declined $2.71, settling at $68.61.

Brent crude, the international standard, fell $2.79, to $73.24 per barrel.