Baffert ban takes some of luster off Kentucky Derby

Regardless of whether you think this is Kentucky Derby 150, Kentucky Derby 150* or Kentucky Derby 149½, most of the animus around this year’s historic race will be forgotten, if only briefly, when the gates open at Churchill Downs on Saturday evening.

Somewhere around 20 of the best 3-year-old horses in the world will be hoping to win the most famous horse race on the planet and cement their place in history and lucrative fees in the breeding shed.

The reason the race doesn’t have a full-octane endorsement among the public is because not all of the best 3-year-olds will be running after Churchill Downs expanded its ban of trainer Bob Baffert, who has won this race six times. It’s hardly an argument anymore that Baffert is the best trainer of Derby prospects currently in the game.

Churchill Downs banned him for two years after 2021 winner Medina Spirit tested positive for a legal medication banned on race day. The belief was that the ban was for two years, but Churchill Downs left an out clause that said it could be extended. Despite no violations of any kind, Baffert was inexplicably banned for a third year because Churchill Downs didn’t believe he was contrite enough.

Despite failed last-minute litigation, Muth, who would have likely have been among the top three favorites, was not allowed to enter the race after winning the Arkansas Derby to acquire enough qualifying points. And that’s where it stands.

Now, maybe it’s time to discuss who will be in the Derby.

Who are the favorites in this year’s Derby?

The two horses getting the most buzz are Fierceness (5-2 morning-line odds) and Sierra Leone (3-1). Fierceness won the Florida Derby by 131⁄2 lengths but has been pretty much an every-other-race horse, and Saturday is the other race. In the game, that’s known as a “bounce” horse. He also drew post 17, the only post in 149 years that has never had a Kentucky Derby winner. Drawing from the outside means all the speed will be to his inside, so he should be able to get a good stalking spot. “I’m fine with the post,” said trainer Todd Pletcher. “There’s enough run into the first turn to hopefully establish position.”

Generally you don’t want be too far inside or outside, and Sierra Leone drew post 2. His running style, coming late from the back of the pack, could be hindered by this position since he could have a wall of horses in front of him when he is ready to make his move. “He’s in just a touch farther than I wanted but he didn’t get the 1 hole so I’m OK with that,” said trainer Chad Brown.

As for who is going to win? The post-time favorite has not won the race since 2018 when Justify did it, concluding a streak of six straight winning favorites.

Does a Southern California horse have a chance?

Southern California came perilously close to not having a horse in the Kentucky Derby in … well, a very long time. Research takes you back 70 years before data becomes suspect, but Stronghold (20-1) takes that stat off the table. The Phil D’Amato trainee had to finish at least third in the Santa Anita Derby to have enough qualifying points to make the Kentucky Derby field. He did better than that; he beat an ineligible Imagination by a neck, setting up both a jubilant and teary Winner’s Circle.

Can Stronghold win the Derby? Of course, if you are in it, you can win it. But he certainly is not one of the favorites. People will point to his 89-high Beyer figure and say he just isn’t fast enough. But he has been improving with every race after first winning the Sunland Derby.

It will be the first Kentucky Derby start for D’Amato, jockey Antonio Fresu and owners Eric and Sharon Waller.

“It’s been my dream to have a horse in the Kentucky Derby,” D’Amato said. “And to finally achieve that, I’m still taking it one day at a time . ... And to be able to share it with my friends, family and owners, it’s just a good feeling.”