Why voting this May often matters more

If voters want a say in who governs them at the county and state levels, in many parts of Arkansas they probably should vote in the Republican primaries even if they aren’t Republicans.

That argument is being made by Common Ground Arkansas, the group founded by the Legislature’s only independent, Sen. Jim Hendren of Gravette.

Many voters don’t vote in primaries but then vote in the November general elections. In the last midterms in 2018, only 18.76% of Arkansas’ registered voters, or 327,629 people, went to the polls. Turnout was much higher in November, with 898,793 Arkansans, about 50% of registered voters, voting.

Three million people live in this state.

Hendren says voters kind of have it backwards. They should vote in both May and November, but the primaries are more important because most Arkansans live in places dominated by one party – Republicans, usually – and Arkansas as a state is dominated by Republicans. The November election is often a formality, with the minority party offering little to no opposition.

Arkansans can vote in either party’s primary, no questions asked, and then vote however they want in November. So Hendren told me, “Use your vote where it makes the most impact, and if you want your vote to matter, you’ve got to vote for sure in the primary races in May, and you need to be smart about which primary you vote in.”

Hendren’s group has published a “personal impact calculator” on its website, commongroundar. org. It gave one point for each contested state legislative and county race, and an extra two points for races not contested in November.

Under that system, the score is 25- 0 in Sebastian County, home of Fort Smith, in favor of Republicans over Democrats. That county has contested Republican primaries for numerous state legislative positions as well as the county judge and several other county positions. In most of those races, there will be no opponent in November.

Other Arkansas counties have similar scores. In Craighead County, home of Jonesboro, the score is 191. In Russellville’s Pope County, it’s 37- 0. On the other hand, the score in Phillips County, where Helena- West Helena is located, is 17- 0 in favor of the Democrats. Republicans there should consider voting in the Democratic primary, Hendren’s group would argue.

Here’s one problem with that argument: Primaries also let voters set a party’s direction. If you’re a Democrat in Sebastian County, you definitely want to help decide who your county judge, a Republican, will be. But you also have a contested Democratic primary for governor, and you might strongly support a candidate. Likewise, a Phillips County Republican would want to help determine whether Sen. John Boozman, who faces three Republican opponents, is re- elected.

Hendren said the low primary turnout means a small minority of Arkansans are electing everyone’s officials. Let’s say only 18.76% are voting in the primary. Then that’s divided by the two party’s primaries. The winners need only half the votes in the dominant party’s primary, and then in most places they’re almost guaranteed to win in November.

Basically, 5% of Arkansans are electing many officials. Those voters tend to be more partisan and ideological. Voters who want pragmatic officials willing to seek bipartisan solutions are more likely to be in the 81.24% staying home. Then they complain about their choices in November.

This leads to increasingly partisan elected officials taking office, and it pushes less partisan officials away from the center and toward the edges. Hendren said in his 16 years at the Capitol, “I have never had somebody come and tell me that they have fear to vote one particular way because of what might happen in the general election. I always, I mean, weekly, have people say I can’t vote for that bill because I’m going to get beat in the primary if I do.”

Here’s what I’d say: If you strongly support one party or a particular candidate, you probably should vote in that party’s primary.

Otherwise, vote where you have the most say in the races that most matter to you. Don’t worry about the party label if you don’t really affix one to yourself.

In addition to partisan positions, the May elections will decide judicial races, including two Supreme Court seats, and many school boards.

So above all, vote. The U. S. Election Assistance Commission found Arkansas had the lowest voter turnout of any state in 2020.

Let’s do better. Voting has started and continues until May 24.