Governor’s race interesting, for a few days

The Arkansas governor’s race was somewhat interesting last week for two reasons: We saw the major party candidates standing a few feet from each other, and we saw a poll where they weren’t as far apart as one might expect.

The Arkansas PBS debate Friday brought together Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Democrat Chris Jones along with Libertarian Ricky Harrington. The three answered questions posed by journalists, albeit in a very controlled format with one-minute responses and 30-second rebuttals.

Sanders said phasing out the state’s income tax would make Arkansas more competitive with other states. To make the numbers work, she said Arkansas would need to grow its economy while state government must cut waste, fraud and abuse.

As for education, she said curricula should be transparent, children shouldn’t be trapped in failing schools, teachers should be rewarded, and workforce readiness should be a priority.

Jones put in a plug for his “PB&J” plan: preschool, broadband and jobs. He promised to be a pragmatic, problem-solving governor. He said the state should cut taxes in a measured, responsible way, but it cannot eliminate the income tax without causing major problems. The math, he said, has to add up.

Harrington said the remainder of the grocery tax should be eliminated while sales taxes should be cut.

Sanders differed from her opponents on one of the hottest issues in Arkansas politics: its law banning transgender procedures for minors, which is now tied up in court.

While Gov. Asa Hutchinson vetoed the bill, Sanders would have signed it. She said government should protect people who can’t protect themselves, and that young people are not capable of making such life-altering decisions.

Jones disagreed. He said as a scientist, minister and nuclear engineer, he would follow the science and trust parents to decide for their children. Harrington said parents, not the government, take care of their children when they are sick, and it’s not the government’s job to make this kind of decision.

Another issue that arose was Sanders’ lack of media accessibility. She said the press is important but that reporters should be unbiased. When they aren’t, she said she’ll take her message directly to the people.

Left unsaid was the fact that she doesn’t need the media thanks to her campaign war chest, her fame and association with former President Trump, her maiden name, and the fact that she’s a Republican in Arkansas.

The debate was held the day after a new Talk Business & Politics/hendrix College poll showed Sanders was leading Jones, 51% to 41%, with Harrington trailing at 3% and another 5% saying they are undecided.

All four of those numbers are significant. The 51% matters because it’s enough for Sanders to win, as most everyone has known she would since she announced her candidacy. The 41% matters because no statewide Democrat has topped 40% since 2014. Jones appears likely to accomplish that plus perhaps a couple of points more.

The 51%-41% spread is significant because it’s virtually the same as a September Talk Business/hendrix College poll, which means things haven’t moved much. This most recent poll had a margin of error of plus-minus 3.9%, so potentially the race is close – or it might not be close at all. Probably 51-41 is about right, for now.

Regardless, it’s much closer than the other polled races. Republican Sen. John Boozman is leading Democrat Natalie James, 52%-32%. Libertarian Kenneth Cates has 3% support. In the attorney general’s race, Republican Lt. Governor Tim Griffin is leading Democrat Jesse Gibson, 57%-31%.

Why is this race closer? Sanders is a polarizing figure who knows she is going to win and has not campaigned especially hard. The day after the debate, she was in Iowa stumping for a Republican there. Meanwhile, Jones has traveled the state shaking hands and has raised some money, too.

As for the other numbers, if Harrington can hold onto that 3%, the Libertarian Party won’t need to collect signatures to qualify for the ballot in 2024. That would be a big win for his party.

And the 5% undecided? That means most voters, including those watching the debate, have already made up their minds.