Snow on the way after record-breaking dry two months
How much is the big unknown
The driest January and February on record are finally giving way to a certainty of wetter weather this week and into next week, with snow all but certain starting Thursday.
That said, there are still no signs of the very thing the Eastern Sierra and the rest of the state desperately needs most, after seeing the Sierra snowpack average drop to about 63 percent of normal for Feb. 28 (according to the state’s Department of Water Resources most recent snow survey). That would be at least one more soaking ‘atmospheric river’ storm.
Mammoth forecaster Howard Sheckter said its possible.
“I still think there is time to get a good atmospheric river storm in, given the big changes in the weather patterns setting up,” he said. “I still think we could reach about 75 percent of normal for the winter by April,” he said, pointing toward some encouraging signs for at least the first half of the month of March.
The main reason for hope, he said, is that the large blocking pattern set up over the
West is breaking down, allowing storms that do form over the Pacific at least a chance to break through and arrive onshore.
“We just need one more good storm to add another 25 percent to the snowpack and for a La Nina year like this, I would call that pretty good,” he said.
The details for the remainder of this week and into next week look like this, he said: “The storm will arrive Thursday and last into Friday, with amounts at this time looking to be more in the three to six inches range rather than eight to 10 inches over the crest that was originally forecast,” he said. “However, there is always the possibility of getting a bit more. Then, another wave will come in Friday night with another chance at light snowfall Saturday. We still look good for at least a foot total over the crest by week’s end with the unsettled weather lasting into early next week. There are other possibilities out there in the second week of March, as well,” he said.
That said, he noted that the existing La Nina pattern (which statistically tends toward drier winters) has had some unusual aspects to it that could mean it is one of the few ‘three-year’ La Ninas on record, possibly pointing toward another warmer than normal summer to come.
“This La Nina has legs,” he said.
March 1 is the normal date for the state’s third snowpack measurement of the year. The numbers determine how much water is allocated to agriculture, cities, and wildlife for the rest of the year. This year so far, there is no way to sugarcoat it – the situation in the state is undoubtably now grim, barring a ‘Miracle March.’
“Following a January and February that will enter records
as the driest documented in state history, the manual snowpack this week revealed (that the snow water equivalent, which is the measurement of the amount of water contained in the snowpack and is a key component of the state and DWR’S water supply forecast), is 63 percent of average for this date,” DWR said this week.
“With only one month left in California’s wet season and no major storms in the forecast, Californians should plan for a third year of drought conditions,” said DWR Director Karla Nemeth. “A significantly below-average snowpack combined with already low reservoir levels make it critical that all Californians step up and conserve water every day to help the state meet the challenges of severe drought.”
“Although early season storms helped alleviate some drought impacts, a lack of storms in January and February heightens the need for conservation,” she said. “The Governor has asked all Californians to cut back water use at least 15 percent compared to 2020 levels. Regionally, the Northern, Central, and Southern Sierra snowpacks are all standing just above 59 percent to 66 percent of average for this date, impacting watersheds across the state,” she said.
“As the world continues to warm, precipitation is pushing toward extremes. Even when we see large storms producing a lot of snow early in the season, all it takes is a few dry weeks to put us below average,” said Jeremy Hill, Manager of DWR’S Hydrology and Flood Operations Branch.
“With below average precipitation and snowpack up until this point, our latest statewide snowmelt forecasts are only 66 percent of average,” said Sean de Guzman, Manager of DWR’S Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting Unit. “That is not enough to fill up our reservoirs. Without any significant storms on the horizon, it’s safe to say we’ll end this year dry and extend this drought a third year.”