Weeks of rain delay fire season
But within even a week of dry weather, fires could return
Eastside residents no longer take clear blue summer skies for granted, especially in August, which is why the stunningly blue skies of the past few weeks have been such a gift.
Beyond that, weeks of unusually wet monsoon rains in July and into this week have also taken a chunk of time out of what has become a six or seven month fire season, even here in the High Sierra, giving locals only another ten weeks to go before the end of October when even the largest fires finally come to an end without a huge smoke or fire event.
That said, once the rains stop or even lessen, the underlying dryness of the region, set in stone now for almost four very drought years, will once again be the dominant feature facing local communities, said Deb Schweizer, a former Inyo National Forest Public Information Officer and now the PIO for the Washington Office of the U.S. Forest Service.
“In the last three weeks, there has been a substantial, early monsoonal pattern in most parts of the state, with the Eastern Sierra getting the most, which has taken the edge off the fire season but that could change within a week of dry weather,” she said. “In fact, due to this recent dry spell, we now have some ‘sleeper fires’ which are lightning fires that were ignited weeks ago but have been laying low under the rain, starting to pop up again,” she said. “For at least a week or two, we were far more concerned for mudslides than fires but that is changing now. We should not lose sight that the extended and severe drought is a serious factor and it is still very dry out there, meaning that as soon as the rain stops, especially the smaller fuels like grass and brush will be ready to ignite again, although large timber types will hold onto the moisture from the rain a bit longer.”
Even so, the monsoons have had a significant impact on the state and the Sierra, giving the region its most smoke-free summer in years, with fewer large fires at this time than at any time in the past several years, she said. In fact, the same thing is true across almost the entire Western United States, again due to an unusually large and persistent monsoon pattern that took aim at the Desert Southwest in June and has stuck around, moving from the Southwest to the Intermountain region to the Sierra and even
impacting the Pacific Northwest and Northern California a bit.
That means the entire country is at a lower than usual level of fire danger, she said.
“If you take Alaska out of the picture (Alaska is burning at a higher rate than usual), we are at a national ‘Planning Level 3,’ she said. “This is incredible for August; it is much more typical that we go to Planning Level 4 and even 5 as early as July, and even June.
However, the underlying very dry fuels should not be ignored,” she said. “And, the other thing is.. we need to remember that the Creek Fire, which swathed us in smoke for months and is one of the biggest fires in California history, didn’t start until Labor Day weekend.”
So, that said, what’s ahead for the next week or so – or further?
The good news is some forecasters are calling for a continuation of the wetter than normal pattern for the Eastern Sierra and Southwest through the month of August.
“Over the past week, we saw a good deal of monsoon moisture flow into the southwestern U.S,” said forecaster Bryan Allegretto, who is based in the Tahoe Basin area and does Northern and some Central Sierra forecasting for Opensnow. “Just east, near Reno, we saw quite a bit more in the way of showers and thunderstorms. They have already surpassed the August precipitation record, within the first ten days of the month... The weather pattern could remain in this summer mode through the end of the month.”
Another forecaster, Sam Collentine, also working for Opensnow, said something similar. “Daily thunderstorms will continue through the upcoming weekend thanks to the nonstop flow of monsoon moisture into the Western U.S.” he said this week. “An active monsoon pattern will remain in place across the Western U.S. during the week of Aug. 21,” he said – and likely even further.
“Looking ahead to next week, there’s really not much change in regards to the overall weather pattern, he said. The American model does try to introduce drier weather into the Western U.S., while the European model keeps things very active.
“This summer continues to be very kind to the drought-stricken southwest and we should see this region benefit from the surge of monsoon moisture through the end of August. Keep it coming!” he said.