Emphasis on ‘power’ after sizzling start
Welcome to the first edition of the 2019-20 Pac-12 basketball power ratings. (They were scheduled to debut last week, but I got sidetracked by the reporting on an errant 57yard, handsto-the-face penalty and its murky aftermath.)
The power ratings will be published throughout the season as the centerpiece of our weekly coverage of Pac-12 basketball.
Little did I know when formulating the schedule that the first edition would summarize two stellar weeks for the conference.
A few dazzling bits of data ...
OVERALL NON-CONFERENCE RECORD >> 38-3
(That mark excludes Colorado’s win over Arizona State in China, which counted as a non-conference game.)
RECORD AGAINST POWER
4-1
SIX >>
(In football, it’s the Power Five. But Big East basketball is good enough to be grouped with the Pac-12, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC.)
RECORD VS. RANKED TEAMS >> 2- 0
(Oregon over Memphis and Washington over Baylor)
RECORD VS. MOUNTAIN WEST >> 8- 0
BAD LOSSES >> 0
That last number is, by far, the most significant.
The bad losses ... the losses to teams in the 200s or 300s of the NET ratings ... the losses to Montana State and Central Arkansas ... drag down not only the defeated team but the entire conference, infecting every resume from Tucson to Pullman.
The losses out of conference thus far are to Oklahoma, Tennessee and Santa Clara.
(No need for the conference to worry about the first two, but the last one has the potential to turn sour, depending on how the Broncos perform in the WCC.)
What’s next?
Two weeks down, six weeks left in the portion of the schedule that frames the entire season, and the Pac-12 needs ...
• More high-level wins (plenty of chances upcoming).
• The quality wins already recorded to remain quality wins.
(Baylor and Iowa State must fare well in the Big 12, and Memphis must thrive in the American).
• To avoid the headscratching, soul-sapping losses that have been commonplace in recent years.
1. Oregon (4-0)
NEXT UP >> vs. Houston
(Friday)
COMMENT >> First time the same school has been atop the Hotline power ratings in football and basketball since all the way back in 2018-19, when Washington won the football championship and the basketball regular-season title.
2. Washington (2-1)
NEXT UP >> vs. Maine ( late Tuesday)
COMMENT >> Two issues in the loss to Tennessee that could resurface periodically: Errant shooting by the Huskies (5 of 18 from 3-point range) and zone busting by their opponents.
3. Colorado (3-0)
NEXT UP >> vs. Wyoming (Sunday)
COMMENT >> Three games, three wins and zero need for McKinley Wright to carry the Buffaloes to victory.
4. Arizona (4-0)
NEXT UP >> vs. South Dakota State (Thursday) COMMENT >> All the hype directed at guards Nico Mannion and Josh Green, and forward Zeke Nnaji
(21 ppg, 6.0 rpg) has been the Wildcats’ most productive freshman.
5. Oregon State (3-1)
NEXT UP >> vs. UC Santa Barbara ( Wednesday COMMENT >> Early results and upcoming schedule point to at least 10 wins prior to the start of conference play.
6. UCLA (4-0)
NEXT UP >> vs. Hofstra (Thursday)
COMMENT >> Bruins have yet to allow more than 65 points to an opponent and have another week to fine-tune Mick Cronin’s defensive scheme before the schedule (potentially) ramps up.
7. USC (4-0)
NEXT UP >> vs. Pepperdine (late Tuesday)
COMMENT >> With so many teams built outside-in, the Trojans — like Washington — will go as far as their frontcourt takes them.
8. Arizona State (2-1)
NEXT UP >> vs. St. John’s (Saturday)
COMMENT >> The Red
Storm is 3-1 with a loss to Vermont. Not quite the program ASU coach Bobby Hurley grew up watching.
9. Stanford (4-0)
NEXT UP >> vs. MarylandEastern Shore (late Tuesday) COMMENT >> You might have noticed the name in the box score: Freshman forward James Keefe is the son of Adam, one of the greatest players in school history.
10. Utah (3-0)
NEXT UP >> vs. Coastal Carolina (Thursday)
COMMENT >> If sophomore guard Both Gach isn’t atop the early list of most improved players in the conference, he’s close: 7.7 points per game last season; 17.7 this season.
11. Cal (4-0)
NEXT UP >> vs. Duke (Thursday in Madison Square Garden)
COMMENT >> If the Bears are competitive into the second half — even early in the second half — it’s a victory for the conference.
12. Washington St. (2-1)
NEXT UP >> vs. Omaha (Thursday)
COMMENT >> CJ Elleby in the two wins: 50 points on 66-percent shooting. CJ Elleby in the one loss: 10 points on 29-percent shooting. And so it shall be.