California needs more housing, but these metrics are off

Gov. Gavin Newsom and regional agencies contend California is in a “housing crisis.” Their solution is to build

3.5 million new houses, apartments and condos to fill that gap.

The 3.5 millionmagic number was devised using arbitrary criteria. There isn’t a housing crisis. What the Golden State faces is an “affordable homes” shortage.

An analysis conducted by the Palo Alto-based Embarcadero Institute reports the 3.5 million figure was based on a McKinsey & Co. study using New York state as its benchmark. McKinsey decided the Empire State’s housing unit per capita statistic should be California’s target. That pick guaranteed needed housing numbers would be as high as plausible.

IfMcKinsey had used Texas as its criteria, the conclusion would be dramatically different. Then the housing shortage would be 1.5million units. That’s still a big need but a 2million unit swing based on one subjective “given” provides the unavoidable impression NewYorkwas selected because a preordained outcome was the goal.

As the Embarcadero Institute points out, California’s “demographics and household formation are very different than New York’s … (which is) also the fourth-least-affordable state in the country. Clearly more housing hasn’t helped New York’s affordability.”

Put aside Texas and instead use the combined housing unit per capita statistic for all 50 states. The result is similar. The all-state index produces a California home shortage of 1.4 million units.

Powerful interests in Sacramento have financial incentives to see that the claimed housing gap is huge. Construction firms, building trade unions and the real estate industry all are bigwinners if the goal is 3.5 million instead of a real world 1.4 million shortfall. Applying New York’s standard doubles every state-set regional housing needs allocation for Marin.

The Democrats’ legislative supermajority and Newsom are eager to make those special interests content. The Republicans’ legislative super minority doesn’t care about labor. It does the bidding of Big Business campaign donors who see all growth, regardless of unintended consequences, as profitable.

The report concludes, “Affordable housing was only 23% of California’s housing production in 2018, yet 43% of households are lower income.” Henceforth, the state and regional agencies, including our merged Metropolitan Transportation Commission-Association of Bay Area Governments, which establish the regional housing quotas, need to exclusively focus on new rental homes working class folks can afford without going broke.

This can be accomplished by increasing tax credits and devising financial incentives to build housing aimed at lower-income Californians. Change the law and allowmunicipalities to subsidize building affordable housing while not permitting them to be appealable by ballot referendums.

A significant factor inhibiting more affordable homes are Marin’s high government fees and state laws mandating prevailing wages — shorthand for requiring expensive union labor to do the job.

None of this requires sidelining local governments. That ill- conceived approach leads to the evaporation of public confidence in what is otherwise a people- oriented endeavor.

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Years ago I criticized then Ross Valley School District superintendent Rick Bagley for violating ethical norms by endorsing candidates for his own district’s governing board. Doing so established conflicts, as that board set Bagley’s salary. If his endorsee had lost, he’d struggle to work with the ultimate victor.

Now county Superintendent of SchoolsMary Jane Burke has endorsed Robert Goldman, a Marin County Board of Education incumbent. My logic for Bagley holds for Burke. The only distinction is Bagley owed his job to his board while Burke is directly elected. In both cases an endorsement is a mistake. That’s no reflection on Goldman who is a top-flight board member.

As a matter of policy, school superintendents, city managers and special purpose agency general managers shouldn’t endorse candidates for their own governing boards.