Johnson’s Brexit role may not soothe unruly party
LONDON » An “exceptional victory,” the result of “fantastic work” and a deal that “delivered” for the British people.
Even before the text of the post- Brexit trade agreement was published, lawmakers loyal to Prime Minister Boris Johnson lavished praise on him for resolving an issue that has convulsed British politics for almost half a decade.
When Parliament convenes next week to ratify the document, the question will only be the size of Johnson’s majority for a deal that severs close economic ties to continental Europe on Jan. 1 after almost 50 years. Even the opposition Labour Party will officially support it, arguing that it is better than nothing.
Yet this is unlikely to be the final word in the Conservative bloodletting over Europe that has, at least in part, led to the downfall of the party’s last four prime ministers.
Hard- line Brexit supporters have yet to examine the agreement, and they probably will not like every word of an estimated 2,000 pages of dense treaty text and annexes. A small group did not want any trade deal at all, never really trusted Johnson and might still be inclined to make trouble for him.
Criticism
Already, an organization representing British trawler fleets has expressed disappointment at compromises over fishing rights, and the Scottish government has attacked the deal, arguing it strengthens the case for Scotland’s independence.
“In the short term, the Tory Party is pretty united around the very hard Brexit that Boris Johnson pushed Britain toward but which many Britons never thought they were voting for,” said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, a research institute.
But the agreement provides only limited economic benefits for Britain, and friction with the European Union is likely to remain, added Grant, who
said the country’s postBrexit relationship with the European Union may not be much more stable than what preceded it.
“In the longer term, the rift may reopen,” he said, adding that pressure might grow once the deal’s limitations become clear.
The pandemic has plunged Britain into the worst recession in three centuries, so post-Brexit politics remain highly volatile, said Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King’s College, London.
Like poison
And the Brexit debate has poisoned the workings of the Conservative Party, which had long been known for a pragmatic and successful pursuit of power rather than an adherence to political doctrine.
Now, despite achieving his aim of getting “Brexit done,” Johnson cannot assume that the divisions are over.
“Europe has turned the Conservatives into an ideological party, and it has basically got in the way of Conservative governments governing,” Menon said.
Others have tried and failed to end this internecine feud, including David Cameron, one of Johnson’s predecessors.
Cameron once famously pleaded with his party to stop “banging on” about Europe. Yet after being harried by internal euroskeptic critics, he took the fateful gamble of calling the 2016 referendum on EU membership in an illfated effort to put the matter to rest.
Johnson was a beneficiary of that miscalculation, and the lesson he appears to have drawn from recent history is that it is dangerous for any Conservative Party leader to be outflanked on the euroskeptic right.
He campaigned for Brexit, became prime minister thanks to it, and last year kicked out of his party lawmakers who opposed the idea of a clear rupture with the European Union, uniting his Tories behind his hardline stance.
A risk
But in striking a trade deal, Johnson is taking a calculated risk in disappointing a cohort of purist Brexit supporters who helped him win power and who wanted no agreement at all.
An influential caucus of pro- Brexit Conservative lawmakers known as the European Research Group has yet to weigh in on the agreement, and Johnson has been working hard to bring them on his side.
How many of those lawmakers oppose him and who they are will be very significant, Menon said.
“If you have 20 to 40 of them screaming ‘ betrayal,’ that changes the dynamic,” he said.
Waiting in the wings is Nigel Farage, the populist anti-EU politician who has now rebranded his Brexit Party as Reform UK and has shown his skill in the past at peeling off Conservative supporters.
On Thursday, Farage cautiously welcomed Johnson’s deal but with the important caveat that he had yet to read the fine print.
A betrayal?
Some Brexit supporters have always scented that betrayal would lie somewhere within any treaty negotiated with the European Union and, even before the agreement was struck, it was being denounced as another in a long series of British surrenders to Brussels. One commentary article in the pro-Brexit Daily Telegraph argued that the government had been “outsmarted at every turn.”
Others agree with that analysis, but from a more pro- European perspective, noting that even official forecasts suggest Britain will lose out on significant economic growth under Johnson’s deal.