Poll: Likely voters are nearly split in recall election

Just weeks before the Sept. 14 recall election, California voters who plan to cast a ballot are roughly evenly divided when it comes to the question of whether Gov. Gavin Newsom should be removed from office, with Republican opponents especially eager to get rid of the sitting governor, according to a new poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies.

“They’re probably running around the governor’s mansion like their pants are on fire,” said Melissa Michelson, a Menlo College political science professor, “because this is a scary result.”

While the poll found that 50% of likely voters were against ousting Newsom, 47% of likely voters said they do want to recall the governor — a slim divide that may come down to which side can motivate its voters to participate in the election.

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Views of the recall are deeply partisan, with more than nine in 10 of the Democrats most likely to vote planning to vote no and a whopping 95% of Republicans likely to vote set to back the yes side.

Republicans appear to have a jumpstart when it comes to motivating voters to turn out, even if Newsom’s team has more financial resources. The poll found that 90% of Republicans had a high level of interest in the recall, but the same was true for just 58% of Democrats and 53% of independent voters. While Republicans make up only about a quarter of California’s registered voters, they make up a third of those most likely to vote in the recall. Democrats make up 46% of voters in the state, but drop to 42% of likely voters.

“It’s the unhappy people who come out to vote,” Michelson said.

Among all registered voters, the poll found support for the recall at 36% and opposition at 51%, relatively unchanged from previous polling done by IGS and similar to other polls. Those numbers may have given Democrats a false sense of safety, Michelson said, but now Newsom “must mount a robust campaign to keep his job and that’s an expensive, timeconsuming proposition.”

There isn’t much time. Counties are set to begin mailing all registered voters in the state a ballot on August 16, so people can begin marking their choices soon.

“This poll should be a wake up call for Democratic voters and all those who don’t want to see a Trump Republican become governor of California,” Nathan Click, a Newsom campaign spokesperson said in a text Tuesday. “In a normal election, this Republican recall wouldn’t have a snowball’s chance in Death Valley. Californians don’t want a Republican takeover of our state, but if Democrats don’t vote, that’s what could happen.”

Asked about the poll Tuesday during a stop at a Fresno clinic to encourage more Californians to get vaccinated, Newsom said, “We’re going to defeat this partisan effort and we’re going to work hard to do the work people sent us here to do… to improve the quality of life of 40 million Californians regardless their political affiliation regardless their geography. I think we’re going to be OK.”

Recently, Newsom has been holding budget- and coronavirus-related events like the one in Fresno across the state as governor that have sometimes doubled as campaign events, packed with supporters touting his work to combat the virus or the budget surplus. While the sitting governor has been careful policy-wise, not implementing a new mask mandate that could alienate supporters even as the Delta variant surges, he has been more pugnacious on Twitter — criticizing right-wing Republicans for failing to encourage vaccinations.

“Your anti-vaccine lies are literally killing Americans. Your own supporters are following you off a cliff and into the ICU,” Newsom tweeted in response to a jab from Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Michelson thinks the Twitter wars could fire up some supporters and, crucially, fundraisers. But, she said, nothing will replace a solid strategy to get out the vote.

The recall election will involve just two questions. The first is whether to recall Newsom. If more than 50% of voters check yes, the second question — which candidate should replace him — comes into play and the person with the most votes wins.

With more than 40 names on the ballot, including former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and reality star Caitlyn Jenner, a Newsom challenger could eke out a win with just a fraction of the overall vote.

“It doesn’t even matter that there’s no Schwarzenegger providing the star power,” Michelson said, referring to world-famous movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger, who beat out more than 100 contenders in the 2003 recall to oust Gov. Gray Davis.

Larry Elder, a last-minute addition to the pack, seems to be rapidly gaining traction. The poll found Elder, a conservative radio host, leading the field of those hoping to oust Newsom, although 40% of likely voters remain undecided. Eighteen percent of likely voters named Elder their first choice, with Faulconer and businessman John Cox, who lost to Newsom in 2018, each coming in with 10%.

“It’s wide open at this point,” Michelson said.