Marin facing heightened wildfire risk, study finds
Nearly 80 million properties in nation are in danger areas
Nearly 80 million properties across the country are at risk from wildfires, according to a first-of-its-kind study that tries to calculate how widespread the threat has become as climate change stokes the danger.
Marin County has the third-largest percentage increase of homes at risk of wildfire damage in California in the next 30 years. While the study says less than 1% of Marin homes, or about 200 homes, are at risk this year, that number is expected to jump to 40.9% of Marin homes, or 39,300 homes, in the next 30 years.
That places Marin among the top three counties that face the largest increase in wildfire risk to homes. Sonoma County ranked No. 1, followed by Napa County.
Until now, quantifying the risk of wildfires has been more difficult than floods because of wildfire's unpredictable nature. Wildfires can spread rapidly, as the wind moves embers and sparks long distances, igniting
trees and buildings.
This week, the nonprofit First Street Foundation released the nationwide wildfire risk assessment — a massive trove of data that will be integrated into Re
altor.com, so that prospective buyers can see what the fire risk is for any given property.
“Unfortunately, (until) this point there's never been a way for people to understand what their wildfire risk is on a property level,” said Matt Eby, founder and executive director of First Street.
First Street found that nearly 80 million properties are at some risk of wildfire, ranging from minor (less than a 1% chance of wildfire damage over 30 years) to extreme (more than 26% chance of wildfire damage over 30 years).
While the vast majority of those properties — 49 million — are at minor risk, more than 4 million are at severe or extreme risk.
Want to know the risk factor for your home? Click here and input your address.
In the Bay Area, many communities were listed as low risk, although the hills in the East Bay, particularly around areas such as Dublin, San Ramon, Blackhawk, Livermore and Walnut Creek, were considered high risk, along with parts of Solano County, such as Fairfield and Vacaville.
Western states are experiencing drier and hotter weather, which dries out vegetation and creates more fuel for fire. Several destructive fires this year have already ignited well before the hottest, driest months, including a fastmoving blaze last week that destroyed 20 homes in a wealthy Orange County community.
“The hazard is increasing
because burn probabilities are going up,” said Dave Sapsis, a wildland fire scientist at Cal Fire. “There's more fuel. The fuels are highly desiccated because we're in protracted droughts. There's also more that's out there in the way to get impacted.”
Some experts said the new wildfire risk assessment maps should be read with caution and plenty of context.
Marin County Fire Chief Jason Weber said he was skeptical and said many local factors come into play that may not be included in the modeling. While climate change is expected to increase wildfire risk through more extreme heat and weather patterns, homeowners and fire agencies take actions that, collectively, can reduce the risk of wildfire damage.
“The theme here is people can do a lot to protect their house and themselves from the risk of wildfire and I don't think this is accurately captured in this study,” Weber said.
Weber recommended residents
call their local fire agency to arrange an inspection of their property for fire prevention measures. The county's Wildfire Prevention Authority, a joint powers authority made up of local cities, towns and fire agencies, also provides grants for fire prevention work and can help residents fight back against home insurance rate increases or cancellations.
Despite the drumbeat of headlines about wildfires from Colorado to New Mexico to California, the First Street study found the state with the most addresses at risk was Florida. But California will vault into the lead over the next 30 years, the study said.
The risk also will rise in Southern states such as Texas, as well as in states in the Appalachian region of the country, such as West Virginia, Kentucky and Pennsylvania, the study found.
“In Florida and other parts of the Southeast, this kind of climate change looks different than it does out West, but fire is every
bit as dangerous,” said Ed Kearns, First Street's chief data officer.
Craig Clements, director of San Jose State University's Fire Weather Lab, said he was surprised that Santa Rosa, which has been devastated by wildfires in recent years, was listed as low risk, as were forests around the northern edges of Lake Tahoe and most of the Santa Cruz Mountains, where the CZU Lightning Fire burned more than 86,000 acres two years ago, destroying 1,400 buildings and blackening Big Basin Redwoods State Park.
“Taking climate models down to individual addresses is tricky,” Clements said. “We should take that with a little bit of caution. There are lots of risk models out there. And you can reduce your risk.”
Clements noted that many of California's largest fires have started from power lines that sparked or fell during wind storms because PG&E and other utilities hadn't properly maintained them. Some fires start as a result of freak dry lightning storms, or arson.
Homeowners can make upgrades to their homes, he said — from replacing wood shake shingles with fire-resistant shingles, to clearing brush and thinning vegetation.
When many neighbors take such steps, studies show it reduces risk to whole communities by slowing fire spread.
“If you are in a high-risk area it doesn't necessarily mean you are doomed,” Clements said.