Predicting runoff finalists in June primary election races
Most candidates running in California's June primary are unlikely to win outright. Their goal is to be one of the top two candidates putting them in the winner-take-all November runoff.
If the secondplace candidate in each contest is qualified and credible, they'll make November's general election a rational two-way conversation about California's future. Voters might cast primary ballots taking that into consideration especially when there's a front-runner like Gov. Gavin Newson guaranteed a runoff berth.
The four-way race for the open Marin-Sonoma state Assembly seat is between four well-qualified Democrats — Coastal Commissioner Sara Aminzadeh, Supervisor Damon Connolly, Sausalito Marin City School District Board of Trustees President Ida Times-Green and Sonoma's Steve Schwartz, an organic farmer.
It epitomizes the reality that those candidates coming in first and second in the primary are winners.
In the governor's race, Newsom is almost certain to be reelected amid a weak field. The Republicans bungled colossally when they forced Newsom into a recall only to see him defeat that effort in a landslide.
One independent candidate who could make the runoff a serious discussion of policy and philosophy is Michael Shellenberger. I interviewed the Berkeley resident.
He's the author of “San Francsicko: Why Progressives Ruin Cities,” a critique of San Francisco's tragic mishandling of the homeless crisis.
Named a “hero of the environment” by Time magazine, Shellenberger advocates nuclear power as a fossil fuel alternative. He calls for a 21st century version of state hospitals for the mentally ill. Their closure due to the 1970s Lanterman-PetrisShort Act, kicked off the modern homeless crisis.
Once a Democrat, Shellenberger is a “think outside the box” candidate who defies ideological classification. That's the definition of a true independent.
The contest for California attorney general features Newsom-appointed incumbent Democrat Rob Bonta. Only Anne Marie Schubert, Sacramento County's elected district attorney, could give him a run. Once a Republican, she's an independent who “never voted for Trump.” Schubert is a proven tough prosecutor aiming to keep bad guys off the street.
Bonta, a progressive, has a take on prosecutions similar to San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin. Suburban voters should note that, as attorney general, Bonta launched a “housing strike force” to pursue municipalities failing to meet state laws mandating zoning for millions of new housing units.
A Schubert versus Bonta runoff would be a tossup. That's a better scenario than a race between Bonta and some hapless Trump Republican with little traction in solidly “blue” California.
In the North Bay-North Coast 2nd Congressional District, incumbent San Rafael Democrat Jared Huffman is headed for another two-year term in Washington.
His most interesting opponent is self-described “small r” Republican Chris Coulombe.
The Santa Rosa resident avoids the destructive cultural wars that many in the GOP embrace. Coulombe's signature issue is “Suspending federal income tax on the first $170k in salary for five years.” A U.S. Army veteran, he ran the Army's Pacific Theater Air Assault School and later founded a statewide cannabis business.
In the sprawling state Senate 2nd District, there are only two candidates. The incumbent is Healdsburg Democrat Mike McGuire. His Republican challenger is Lake County attorney Gene Yoon.
Yoon's statement that “both of our political parties are failing” could make him an honorary independent.
The Princeton and NYU grad suggests that California schools “develop a one- to two-year curriculum in U.S. government and civics.” As Yoon said in our interview, “The process of doing so … will cause a great public conversation about how to mend our divided politics.”
Even if McGuire wins, he should introduce legislation incorporating Yoon's suggestion to expand teaching kids about our democracy. McGuire might even attract votes from across the aisle if he reminds senate colleagues the idea came from his GOP opponent.