Chicago mayor's race shows impact of crime in COVID's wake
Four years ago, Paul Vallas finished toward the bottom of the pack in a crowded race for Chicago mayor. Trying again, focused this time on crime, he was the top vote getter Tuesday, toppling the incumbent mayor and advancing to an April runoff to lead one of the country's largest cities.
His new campaign message, concentrated on citizens' safety and support for the police, resonated with voters in this Democratic city in a way it might not have before the COVID-19 pandemic, when rates of violent crime spiked.
“Public safety is the fundamental right of every American. It is a civil right,” Vallas told a cheering crowd at his victory party. “We will have a safe Chicago. We will make Chicago the safest city in America.”
That would be a tall order. But Vallas, a moderate Democrat endorsed by the police union, is promising what many voters want to hear, including plans to hire hundreds more police.
Those voters will have a choice. In the April runoff, Vallas will face Brandon Johnson, a progressive who is backed by the Chicago Teachers Union and says more money for police and incarceration isn't the answer to making the streets safer.
Both of them finished ahead of Mayor Lori Lightfoot — 34% for Vallas, 20% for Johnson and 17% for Lightfoot, who was criticized for her response to the increased crime and will depart as the first oneterm mayor in Chicago in 40 years.
The city's election is the latest example of a churn in urban politics in the pandemic's aftermath. Crime was a top concern for voters in races to lead both New York and Los Angeles, and in San Francisco, a district attorney was recalled after frustration about public safety. Perceptions that Democrats were soft on crime also might have hurt the party during the November midterms in House races in places like New York, where Republicans scored surprisingly strong wins in suburban districts.
It's an issue that the GOP has hammered on and that has divided Democrats for years, particularly after the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police in 2020 sparked protests and calls to “defund” the police.
Even as Joe Biden won the presidency in 2020, some moderates complained that the party wasn't quick enough to denounce the “defund” rhetoric coming from progressive activists.
Biden was able to largely neutralize that line of political attack by declaring to bipartisan applause in his first State of the Union: “The answer is not to defund the police. It's to fund the police.”
Although his comment drew criticism from some Black Lives Matter activists and others who argue that larger problems with law enforcement persist, national Democrats have mostly been able to put that issue behind them.
But Chicago's results showed that concern about crime is continuing to resonate down-ballot, especially in urban centers, where steadfast support for Democrats is strongest.
Joe Trippi, a veteran Democratic strategist who is working with Vallas' campaign, said that in years of working on mayoral races he's never seen a contest where crime was so overwhelmingly the top issue for voters. Vallas was the only candidate who made it his core focus, he noted, and his success could be a message to other Democrats.
“I think that is important, for Democrats to make clear that you can be a progressive Democrat and make crime and public safety a top priority,” Trippi said, noting that other goals can't be achieved if people don't feel safe.
The intraparty debate will be on full display in Chicago's April 4 mayoral election, with Vallas and Johnson making very different cases to voters.
Like many U.S. cities, Chicago saw violent crime increase during the pandemic, recording a 25-year high of 797 homicides in 2021, though the number decreased last year and the city has a lower murder rate than others in the Midwest, such as St. Louis. There are still major concerns about an increase in robberies and carjackings and a sense that criminals seem to have grown bolder, striking in neighborhoods that haven't historically been high targets.