Different ways to look at state homeless data

I would like to add context to some of the assertions included in the recent Bay Area News Group article published in the Marin IJ on Dec. 30 with the headline “Homeless numbers grow despite massive spending.”

The article stresses that California has the largest population of unhoused people in the U.S. That's inevitable. It is by far the most populated state and the majority of it has very mild winters. Given that, it is inevitable that it would have the most.

The article should have instead highlighted the fact that, in 2023, California's growth in homelessness was relatively low compared to other states. The number of homeless people grew by 6% in California, only half as much as for the nation (coming in at 12%) and a lot lower than New Hampshire at 52% and New Mexico at 50%. New York and Colorado each had 39% growth.

It's likely California's income growth is being underestimated. According to the article, between 2000 and 2021, California's “renter income rose only 7%.” The story say the 7% figure is provided by the nonprofit California Housing Partnership. Though I could not find any time series for California renter income, I did find U.S. Census data for California's median household income.

It rose from $46,280 in 2000 to $81,580 in 2021. That's an increase of 76%. This would be over 10 times higher than the renters' income increase divulged by the cited report. I think the 7% figure appears highly unlikely.

How about Marin County's performance regarding homelessness? The article mentioned that Marin County's population of unhoused people has increased by 8.5%. This seemed high compared to 6% for California. But Marin's rise was over a three-year period from 2019 to 2022. That corresponds to about 2.8% per year. On a relative basis, that's