Nearly two-thirds of Florida’s ICU beds already taken

ORLANDO, Fla. – Data released this week by the White House paints a bleak portrait for Florida’s hospitals, which are already grappling with the biggest public health crisis in a century with the worst still yet to come.

While the number of cases and deaths in Florida – 9,585 and 163 respectively as of Friday morning – get the most attention, hospitalizations are another important data point. Experts say that number is key to determining if hospitals are running out of beds, intensive-care units and essential equipment such as ventilators and N95 masks.

The number of people who have at one point been hospitalized with coronavirus in hospitals has grown significantly since March 18 when there were only 66 statewide. By Thursday there were more than 1,200 and climbing, nearly doubling since Monday, according to the Florida Department of Health.

Nearly two-thirds of the state’s 6,000 ICU beds are already taken, according to Agency for Health Care Administration data on Thursday. And it’s still about a month before experts say the state will hit its peak number of COVID-19 cases.

Dr. Charles Lockwood, dean of University of

South Florida’s Health Morsani College of Medicine, said hospitalizations are a good indicator of the severity of the virus because most people who have it can recuperate at home. While the numbers of hospitalizations in Florida are startling, the situation isn’t as bad as New York so far, Lockwood said.

“New York had vast community spread before they even knew they did,” he said, referring to cases in which the source of a patient’s infection is unknown. “You have towering buildings with people living on top of each other, people taking the subway. In Florida you are much more spread out. It’s no accident that Miami-dade and Broward are two hot spots. They are much more vertical.”

But things could get worse.

According to data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine that predicted through Aug. 4 between 40,000 and 178,000 deaths nationwide, Florida could have all of its ICU beds filled by April 16. When the virus is at its peak in the beginning of May, Florida will need a median of 2,600 ICU beds for coronavirus patients alone at its peak on May 1, meaning the state will have to come up with about 800 more. The model is current as of

April 1 and is expected to update.

The worst case scenario projected by the forecast is Florida will need 7,800.

The news for overall hospital beds is a little better. There are more than 20,000 available beds for the nearly 17,000 predicted coronavirus patients at its peak.

The best-case scenario calls for Florida needing just 475 ICU beds and 3,700 overall.

The state also is expected to need 2,000 ventilators at its peak the first week of May. The state has requested 5,000.

The number of patients currently in hospitals is not publicly available and not all of those hospitalized with COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, require intensive care.

While the situation sounds dire, predictive models can sometimes be off. Far fewer people died in 2009 of the swine flu, or H1N1, than originally expected. Raul Pino of the Florida Department of Health in Orange County said a model is only “as good as the data you enter into it.”

“A model constantly changes,” he said. “A model is basically a mathematical equation. It takes into consideration what is happening today, but as we apply more measures ... that outcome may change.”