More than 1 million California ballots already cast, shattering records
Election day is more than two weeks away, but already more than 1 million Californians have returned their mail-in ballots, according to the state, an amount that dwarfs the number submitted at this point four years ago. This marks the most ballots collected by mail at this point in any California election.
Nearly half of the mail-in ballots come from Los Angeles County, where about 435,00 voters have already sent in their ballots, according to the L.A. County registrar-recorder’s office.
The flood of ballots announced by Secretary of State Alex Padilla still represents only a fraction of the 21 million sent to California voters under a new state mandate prompted by pandemic safety efforts. But the immediate response suggests voters are especially engaged amid a contentious presidential election and the disruption to work and education caused by the pandemic, experts say.
“Many families are at a breaking point and are likely taking their frustrations out at the ballot box,” said Shannon Murphy Castellani, principal at M Strategic Communications, a Los Angeles-based public affairs firm. “It’s clear voters are paying attention this election cycle.”
The statewide focus on voting by mail this year came in May when Gov. Gavin Newsom issued an order mandating ballots be sent to all the state’s registered voters. But the state had been moving in the direction in recent years following passage of the Voter’s Choice Act, which created a new model similar to other Western states that have tried to make casting ballots more convenient for voters.
Fourteen counties, including Los Angeles, began using the model, which focused on sending ballots to all registered voters, expanding early voting and using vote centers, allowing residents more flexibility in where they participate.
Orange County has also seen a flood of early mail-in returns, with more than 100,000 ballots received so far, according to Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., a firm that tracks voter information in detail.
The information collected by
Mitchell’s firm, which is known in the industry as a trusted data source, is sliced by demographics, geography, political party and age.
It appears that roughly 10% of voters who are 65 or older, for example, have already returned their mail-in ballots. Democrats have returned them at a slightly higher rate than Republicans, according to the data.
Mail-in ballots, registration deadlines, voting centers _ we’ve got you covered with the basics of voting in the Nov. 3 election.
Political consultants such as Fiona Hutton of Los Angeles say their internal survey data are showing a high degree of intent and motivation to vote early. But whether all voters will follow through by completing and ultimately submitting their mail-in ballots is unclear.
“It’s going to be significantly more than we’ve seen before,” Hutton said. “Will it be historic? ... I’m not sure.”
That high level of engagement is represented by voters such as Rosie Manina, a Bay Area financial analyst who cast her mail-in ballot in a drop box.
She received her ballot a week ago and turned it in by Saturday, in what she said was the “fastest turnaround ever” for one of her mail-in ballots, she said.
“I’ve never been so excited to vote in my entire life,” she said. “I wanted to make sure that my vote was in early, in part to relieve pressure on my registrar.”
Los Angeles County could feel that pressure. This year it sent more than
5.6 million registered voters mail-in ballots, not just those who requested them as in the past, posing a potential challenge for officials to process, mail and ultimately count them all.
“Our office is fully prepared to handle the anticipated increase of returned vote-by-mail ballots,” said Mike Sanchez, a spokesman for the office.
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Luis Alvarado, an L.a.-area Republican strategist, said he too was seeing greater voter interest and engagement.
He attributes that in part to frustration with President Trump, who is unpopular in deep-blue California, but also to campaigns getting smarter in their tactics for educating voters on how to participate. He also said voters had more time to investigate ballot measures and candidates because of the pandemic.
“There’s greater enthusiasm,” he said. “The effervescence is totally seeping into the consciousness of the electorate.”