Yet another GPU shortage

This time, it’s political

JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT the GPU market had returned to normal, the US government creates another GPU shortage. Restrictions have been placed on Nvidia’s RTX 4090, notionally preventing export to China on the basis that the GPU is so powerful, it may be useful for AI research and development. That had the impact of seeing more RTX 4090s flooding into China before the ban.

Even with the ban live, there are reports of RTX 4090s being stockpiled in countries bordering China. All of that underlines that the move is more about politics and optics. If the RTX 4090 is freely available across most of the world, China finds the RTX 4090 useful in its AI quest, and is suitably motivated, the idea that the export ban is going to have much impact is slightly risible.

Things are arguably different with dedicated AI chips like Nvidia’s H100, which are more expensive, can’t be snapped up by market stall traders, and are easier to track. But a gaming card available at a low cost on every online outlet? Hardly.

Speaking of relatively low costs, the impact of the inevitable run on 4090s has had the opposite effect. That’s unfortunate, given it’s only recently that the graphics card market has returned to something resembling normality. It’s particularly frustrating with regard the 4090, because I have the sense that Nvidia underpriced the card. Yeah, an underpriced $1,599 GPU.

I say that because, of all the RTX 40 series GPUs, the 4090 got the smallest price bump over the previous generation, so you get more frames per dollar—at the official MSRP, at least—from an RTX 4090 than the likes of the RTX 4080 or RTX 4070 Ti. That makes no sense.

My worry is that price spikes on the RTX 4090 will encourage Nvidia to see the error of its ways with the 4090 and price its successor higher. If that hardly seems like a problem for most gamers, who weren’t buying a 4090 or 5090 whether they were priced at $1,599 or $2,599, the problem is that a pricier 5090 creates space in Nvidia’s lineup to push a 5080 even higher. That cascades down the product stack, and everything ends up more expensive. I hope I’m wrong about this, but I am a bit worried.

Weird to say it, but the RTX 4090’s

$1,599 MSRP is almost too cheap.