Huh? The Ambiguous Alliance
How the U.S. got mixed up in Taiwan and why we still care.
For half a century after the Sino-japanese War in 1895, Taiwan was a colony of Japan. Following Japan’s defeat in World War II in 1945, China fell into a bloody civil war that ended in 1949 when Chinese communists under Mao Zedong defeated U.s.-backed Chinese Nationalists. Defeat on the mainland prompted an exodus of about a million mainlanders to Taiwan, who monopolized top positions in the government, military and economy dominated by state-run industries inherited from the Japanese. The United States took up a posture of defense on Taiwan’s behalf, notably with a 1954 mutual defense treaty under which the U.S. tacitly agreed to come to Taiwan’s military aid in the event of an armed attack from China. Normalization of relations with China and passage of the Taiwan Relations Act in the 1970s made the 1954 treaty obsolete and left the United States walking a tightrope with what longtime China military analyst Randall Schriver calls “alliance-like commitments” to Taiwan while acknowledging China’s claim to sovereignty over the island. The United States doesn’t support Taiwan independence yet promotes what the State Department calls “a robust unofficial relationship” that “enshrines the U.S. commitment to assist Taiwan in maintaining its defensive capability.” However intentionally ambiguous, Schriver says the U.S. alliance is far from outdated—he argues America’s commitment to Taiwan is more important now than when the original mutual defense treaty was signed. “In the [1950s] and ‘60s, Taiwan was seen as a non-democracy, a somewhat authoritarian country that aligned with us in the Cold War during our great ideological struggle against communism. Now as a democracy, Taiwan is our ninth-largest trading partner. If you look at semi-conductors, over half the world’s supply comes from one company alone [Taiwan’s TSMC] when you get into higher-end chip sets. Our interests with Taiwan are enduring.”
Taiwan may not be a teetering house of cards but nor can it be the free world’s Alamo, expected to fall to the last man in a noble yet doomed rearguard action.
“Taiwanese are going to be more willing to put up a prolonged, intense fight if they don’t believe going in that it’s a futile effort,” says Michael Mazza, a nonresident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “One way for the United States and others to encourage Taiwan to prepare itself is to reassure it that it won’t be alone.”
For Americans, the temptation to see Taiwan as a disposable prop in an ongoing “Will they or won’t they?” game with China is understandable. As is succumbing to the resignation that Beijing’s conquest is inevitable, and that we might as well just accept it.
“Taiwan’s 23 million people may not be 1.4 billion people, but I think it matters,” argues Schriver. “And I think other countries increasingly care about Taiwan and care about China’s ambitions that are not limited to Taiwan.
“The fact that Europeans are interested in this now, that the French and Brits have both done naval transits through the Taiwan Strait. Why would they do that? Seems pretty remote and far away, doesn’t it?”
“A conflict here would have global consequences,” says Enoch Wu, a former Taiwanese special forces soldier turned politician. He points to his country’s strategic position and the immense amount of global trade that passes
through nearby waters. “But beyond that, this is a fight for democratic values, the right to decide for ourselves how we wish to live, where we wish to go from here as a people.”
The Taiwanese people, of course, are the ones most impacted by the anxious debate and ongoing gray zone struggle that hangs over the island like a gathering storm. But Wu’s words resonate around what feels to many like a planet on the brink of authoritarian dominance. Do we want a world where bigger, more aggressive countries are allowed to bully, invade and kill as they like? What’s more, is America’s self-appointed role as world cop even any longer viable?
We may imagine the day we’ll have to answer those questions is still to come, that the moment of truth will arrive when the first People’s Liberation Army Navy ships land on the beaches of Taiwan. The truth is, that moment is already here. The sooner we realize that, the less likely we’ll have to answer those questions at gunpoint.
CHINA’S SYSTEMATIC “GRAY ZONE” TACTICS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AROUND THE REGION IN RECENT YEARS.