How Tua injury could affect Dolphins’ situation
Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s injuries (dislocated hip and a posterior wall fracture) could end up giving the Dolphins an opportunity to draft him even if their draft position worsens. But should they?
That decision — especially if it’s a choice between Tua and Oregon’s Justin Herbert, in a scenario where LSU’s Joe Burrow goes first to the Bengals — looms as the most important call of this rebuild, and it’s one they’re unprepared to make until: 1.) They have studied Tua’s medical files, if he turns pro (which is no sure thing). 2.) They see how Herbert completes his final season. 3.) They interview both players, something that’s of premium importance to general manager Chris Grier.
(And lower-rated QBs such as Washington’s Jacob Eason and Georgia’s Jake Fromm could emerge as later options.)
Some of the feedback on how Tua’s stock has been affected, amid a Yahoo report that he will be unable to work out for teams before the draft.
ESPN analyst Mike Tannenbaum, the former Dolphins executive, told me that “as of now” it would be too risky to use a top-10 pick on Tua, but that he would need more medical information.
Tannenbaum said on ESPN: “If I’m New England, I take him at the bottom of the first round. I say, ‘You’re not playing one year, maybe two because we are going to make sure you are 1,000 percent healthy.’ If I’m Tua and drafted in the middle of the first round by the Bengals, I may say I have world class care, have more leverage than John Elway did and … Eli Manning did. I will rehab myself for a year and go back in the draft.”
ESPN’s Mel Kiper: “Tua [33 touchdown passes, three interceptions this season] doesn’t have the big-time arm strength and now the durability concern is obviously real and has been because of the ankle injuries. So, this kind of complicates matters when you’re competing with two other quarterbacks who are highly rated. It puts [Tua] right now third in line” behind Burrow and Herbert.
ESPN’s Todd McShay: He dropped Tagovailoa to 13th on his big board of draft-eligible prospects, with Burrow second and Herbert fifth. Ohio State defensive end Chase Young is first.
McShay’s views, via ESPN.com: “There have been plenty of cases of quarterbacks coming off injury and still being a first-round pick [think Sam Bradford, among others], and NFL teams will certainly want to capitalize on the fifth-year option that comes with a Day 1 selection, but this is no standard injury. Teams will have to take these medical concerns — along with his prior durability concerns as a whole — into serious consideration.
“I’d still rank Tagovailoa as QB1 above Burrow if he were healthy today, and I still have him as a firstround pick. He is a special talent. The lefty has elite accuracy at all three levels, a smooth delivery, solid arm strength and excellent touch. And his anticipation and fast eyes are highend.”
Former NFL executive Ken Herock told me he “wouldn’t take Tua in the first round” because “it’s too big a risk. I look at him and he’s not a big, physical guy.” He believes Burrow and Herbert are better equipped for NFL success, anyway.
Herock looks at this from an interesting perspective, because he drafted Brett Favre 33rd overall for Atlanta in 1991 even though “our doctors said he would only play five years because of his hip injury.” Herock regrets succumbing to coach Jerry Glanville’s demands that Herock trade Favre, which
Herock did (to Green Bay) for a first-rounder after Glanville complained repeatedly about Favre’s drinking and immaturity.
The difference is that Favre was far more durable in college than Tua and had a bigger build. And Tua’s hip issue was more serious than Favre’s coming out of college.
Los Angeles Rams team doctor Michael Banffy, an orthopedic surgeon at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles, told AL.com that “I don’t think this will knock him out of the first round, for sure. It will probably knock him out of the top five, but it all depends on how he progressively heals and how he looks at the combine.”
Several NFL people — including draftnik Tony Pauline and former Patriots executive Michael Lombardi — have advocated he return to Alabama in 2020, but not play there.
Pauline, on profootballnetwork.com, has Tagovailoa falling to 31st in the first round, behind four other QBs — Burrow, Herbert, Utah State’s Jordan Love and Eason.
CHATTER
The Dolphins have a lot of problems, and here’s one that absolutely must be addressed this offseason: They need to add a couple of stout run defenders who can set the edge at defensive end and outside linebacker.
The Dolphins are second-worst in rush defense, allowing 148.3 yards per game on the ground and a bloated 4.7 yards per carry.
I asked coach Brian Flores if there’s a single player on his team who has consistently set the edge well on defense. “Vince Biegel and Charles Harris have been more consistent,” Flores said.
Pro Football Focus rated 108 qualifying edge players in the area of run defense. Harris stands 80th, Biegel 89th, Taco Charlton 104th and Sam Eguavoen 106th.
Avery Moss and Trent Harris also would rank near the bottom among edge players in run defense, according to PFF’s grading system, if they had enough snaps to qualify.
Heat president Pat Riley acknowledged last week that difficult decisions await next summer, with Goran Dragic and Meyers Leonard on expiring contracts, and Kelly Olynyk able to opt out of $13.6 million if he chooses. Miami could offer all of them one-year deals, using their Bird Rights, but can’t sign them to multiyear deals because it would leave the Heat without max space to pursue Giannis Anteokounmpo in the summer of 2021.
The Heat will have the space to change Chris Silva’s two-way deal to a standard contract as early as Jan. 14, with Silva available every game before that. … ESPN’s Kendrick Perkins, on the Hassan Whiteside trade: “Pat Riley fooled [the Portland Trail Blazers] and sold them a used Buick that needed a new transmission.”
Not Kobe Bryant or James Harden — or anyone in at least 20 years — has ever done what Duncan Robinson did Wednesday against Cleveland: scoring 21 points or more in less than 5:12 in a single quarter.
The Marlins intend to sign at least one veteran bat, but are disinclined to give him a long-term deal because they don’t want to block any of their top position prospects. … At this point, the Marlins are leaning toward tendering arbitration-eligible pitcher José Ureña, but haven’t made a final decision.