PIVOTAL SUMMER FOR MIAMI HEAT
With the Heat facing key roster decisions this summer, the future in Miami of Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder hangs in the balance.
A look at the key roster decisions the Heat must make this summer, with the most likely scenario and the consequences. Goran Dragic and Jae Crowder address their futures with free agency looming.
These final weeks of the Heat season weren’t merely going to be a chance to try to move up in the Eastern Conference standings, but also an opportunity for management to determine how to construct its 202021 roster, and an unspoken audition for several key players.
The conventional wisdom was that if the Heat finished the season strong — and if impending unrestricted free agents Goran Dragic, Derrick Jones Jr. and Jae Crowder continue to contribute, with impending free agent Meyers Leonard due to return at some point — then the Heat likely would try to keep this team together for another year and bypass using what could be significant 2020 cap space.
No playoff team would have more cap space than the Heat this summer if Miami opted to use that space, a move that would require renouncing most of its free agents and thus
nullifying their Bird
Rights.
Now, with the season suspended because of coronavirus, much remains uncertain.
This much is certain: Crowder hopes the Heat keeps him.
“I really want to make this my home,” said Crowder, who has averaged 11.9 points and 5.8 rebounds while shooting 39.3 percent on threepointers since being acquired from Memphis.
“I feel comfortable here, feel comfortable with the whole organization top to bottom. If everything goes as we plan, I’m sure everybody would like to stay together and build off what we’re doing this year and go into next year with the same mindset.”
But such a plan likely would be dependent on Dragic, Crowder and Leonard taking one-year deals, so as not to affect 2021 cap space (which remains a Heat priority), and Jones Jr. accepting either a one-year deal or a two-year contract with a second-season salary of no more than $6 million or so, thus ensuring Miami enough cap space to add a max free agent in 2021, when Giannis Antetokounmpo will be targeted.
An associate of Dragic anticipates a large oneyear offer from Miami this summer, potentially in the range of this season’s $19 million salary. The Heat values his contributions, professionalism and enormous offensive boost off the bench. And don’t overlook the fact Jimmy Butler and Dragic are close.
In the days before the NBA suspended its season, Dragic said it’s premature to consider whether a bloated one-year offer would appeal to him, though he likes playing and living here.
“We’ll see,” Dragic said when asked about a oneyear scenario. “A lot of different factors, my family, myself. I would say it’s too soon to talk about it. I’m not thinking about my next contract. I’ve always been a guy in the present.”
But he also made clear he’s content in the bench role that coach Erik Spoelstra asked him to handle this season.
“I am happy,” he said. “I am enjoying the game. At the start of the season, it was tough to accept that. I’m a competitive guy. Of course, when you get the news, you have some doubts, some crazy thoughts. But the main thing was for me to accept it and think positively and make it the best scenario for me. I did that. I’m proud of myself.”
Spoelstra’s appreciation for Dragic, Crowder, Jones Jr. and Leonard is evident by their prominent roles, and in the case of Dragic and Crowder, by the fact they’re usually on the court late in close games.
Another potential reason for the Heat to not use cap space this summer and instead retain the current free agents: Because of the suspension of the season due to coronavirus, NBA revenues will decrease if all the games aren’t made up, and that’s likely to have an impact on the salary cap, Golden State general manager Bob Meyers told Bay Area reporters this week.
The cap, which has been projected to be $115 million, reportedly could end up falling short of that by several million dollars, though that’s very fluid.
Still, there are a few scenarios in which the Heat could decide to use cap space this summer — and operate as a room team — instead of bringing back most or all among Dragic, Crowder, Jones Jr. and Leonard.
Those scenarios include:
If — and it appears highly unlikely — that Lakers forward Anthony Davis accepts a max Heat offer, something Miami would have the space to offer only if Kelly Olynyk opts out of $13.6 million next season, which would give the Heat about $40 million in cap space — instead of $27 million — if all of its free agents were renounced and if the cap remains at its current $115 million projection.
In that scenario, Miami might be able to afford Jones Jr. (who has a small cap hold) but not Dragic, Crowder or Leonard. But a Davis-to-Miami scenario is obviously unlikely.
If the NBA season resumes and the Heat performs very poorly in postseason and is quickly eliminated, causing team president Pat Riley to reassess.
If the season doesn’t resume and Riley was troubled enough by the uneven play in recent weeks — including home losses to Charlotte and Minnesota — that he decides to shake up the roster without jeopardizing 2021 cap space.
If any of the next tier of 2020 free agents after Davis — Serge Ibaka, Danilo Gallinari, Demar DeRozan (player option this summer) or perhaps Montrezl Harrell or Fred Van Vleet — accepts an enormous one-year offer from Miami, which appears not particularly likely.
If Dragic or both Dragic and Crowder opt for multiyear deals elsewhere.
At this point, though, the odds favor the Heat not operating as a room team and instead using its cap space on its free agents if they are amenable to reasonable one-year deals, while also holding a $9.8 million midlevel exception to use on players from a free agent pool including Marcus Morris, Marc Gasol, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Justin Holiday, Jordan Clarkson, Austin Rivers, Avery Bradley, Tristan Thompson, Enes Kanter, Paul Millsap, Aron Baynes and DeMarcus Cousins, among others.
The Heat, in that scenario, also would have a $3.8 million bi-annual exception and a $7.5 million trade exception to use anytime before Feb. 5, 2021.
So under the $115 million NBA cap projection, why can’t the Heat use the $27 million in space (or $40 million if Olynyk opts out) on outside free agents and then sign Dragic,
Crowder, Jones Jr. and Leonard, since all four have Bird Rights?
Because all four, except Jones Jr., have substantial cap holds (Dragic at $28.8 million; Leonard at $16.9 million and Crowder at $14.8 million), and those holds clog Miami’s cap until those players are renounced by Miami or until their actual salaries replace their holds on Miami’s cap.
But there’s no need to renounce Jones Jr., because his cap hold is minimal and because his cap hit for next season will be only $1.7 million in 202021 no matter what the Heat pays him, though his full 2021-22 salary would count against Miami’s cap in the second year of a potential multiyear deal.
While the Heat could pick and choose among its four key free agents (Dragic, Crowder, Jones, Leonard), keep this in mind: If Miami signs Dragic — and if Olynyk doesn’t opt out — it would make sense to try to keep Crowder, Jones and Leonard because there wouldn’t be enough leftover cap space (after striking a deal with Dragic) to replace those three with similar quality. And Miami would still have that $9.8 million midlevel exception, which could decline somewhat in value if next season’s league cap number drops.
But if Olynyk opts out, the Heat could keep Dragic and Crowder and still potentially have $10 million to $15 million to spend on outside free agents (or Jones and Leonard, if it chooses).
Crowder has made a strong impression in his first month here, and Riley told him “how tough he knows I play, how wellrespected I am by my peers in this league and what I bring to a team,” Crowder said. “Any time we have interaction with each other, I cherish it.”
If the season resumes in several weeks as the league hopes, those four free agents — and Solomon Hill, who also is eligible for free agency — can continue to try to make their case for Miami to keep them another year. If not — if coronavirus causes cancellation instead of suspension — the Heat will need to make decisions off a three-quarters-of-aseason body of work.