Howard upgrade at RB, but Fins will likely draft another
Chatter on the Dolphins’ offensive additions this past week and where Miami stands on that side of the ball beyond quarterback, which will be addressed in the draft:
Jordan Howard gives the Dolphins a far better running back than anyone on their roster, a player who has the third-most rushing yards (3,895) since 2016.
He’s much better than Kalen Ballage and Patrick Laird in breaking tackles and his 4.4 per carry average last season was 23rd in the league and far superior to Laird’s 2.7 and Ballage’s 1.8, which was the lowest in 70 seasons for an NFL player with at least 70 carries.
So he’s a good signing. But here’s what he’s not: A dangerous threat out of the backfield as a receiver.
Though Howard has caught 82 passes for 637 yards in his fouryear career, Pro Football Focus said his “receiving ability is widely known for being poor. In his four seasons, Howard owns a whopping 16 percent drop rate and has generated only 0.79 yards per route run.” Only two of his career catches were touchdowns.
His 7.8 yards per reception average in his career is pedestrian. By comparison, Kareem Hunt is at 9.6, Darren Sproles 8.8. And Damien Williams was at 10.8 in his first year doing it for Adam Gase in Miami in 2016.
And that’s why two draft-eligible backs who have captured the Dolphins’ affection — JK Dobbins and D’Andre Swift — would be the ideal complement to Howard.
Dobbins, in three years at Ohio State, caught 71 passes for 645 yards (9.1 per catch) and five TD receptions.
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein said Dobbins “has the efficiency, production and third-down value teams covet. He can make a sudden tackler miss.” The Dolphins love him and he has as good a chance as anyone at being the pick at No. 26.
The Dolphins also like Swift, whose receiving numbers at
Georgia are nearly identical to Dobbins’: 73 catches, 666 yards, 9.1 per catch and five TD receptions, including six catches for 121 yards in his career against the Gators and 8 for 70 against Alabama.
Zierlein calls Swift an “everydown back” whose “hands are soft and sticky as a pass catcher.”
The Dolphins opted for Howard over Denver-bound Melvin Gordon (who would have been pricier), but Gordon would have been better in the passing game (224 catches, 1,873 yards, 8.4 per catch, 11 receiving touchdowns), though his 4.0 per carry average is worse than Howard’s 4.3..
It must be noted that Laird showed potential as a third-down back (caught 23 of 28 targets for 204 yards with three drops), but the need for another skilledreceiving back on the roster is evident. Ballage was awful as a receiver, dropping four of the 19 passes thrown to him, including one taken back for an interception.
A New linebacker Elandon Roberts’ ability to play fullback could allow Miami to part with Chandler Cox and save them a roster spot; Cox received just 66 offensive snaps as a rookie. Roberts played 70 offensive snaps for the Patriots last season and 218 on defense.
A Now let’s be clear: Howard was still a very solid signing, because as a 1A, he’s fine. And one encouraging thing about Howard last season is he regained some of the elusiveness that fell off in 2018, his final season in Chicago.
He forced 20 missed tackles on just 119 carries last season with the Eagles. He has converted 37 of 50 third- or fourth-andshort runs in his career (three yards or fewer needed for a first down).
He averaged 2.9 yards after first contact, which was middle of the pack among backs. By contrast, Ballage (1.5 after contact) and Laird (1.8 after contact) were two of the worst backs in the league in that category.
What has changed, however, is that he doesn’t produce as many long runs. As a rookie, he had 10 rushes of 20 yards or more, but just 11 in three years since. “He’s one of the top guys, up there with some of those big-time running backs,” Eagles coach Doug Pederson said. “Powerful back, downhill runner.”
Best guess on the starting offensive line: A rookie firstround pick at left tackle (Georgia’s Andrew Thomas or Houston’s Josh Jones or perhaps Southern Cal’s Austin Jackson at No. 18), Jesse Davis at right tackle, Ted Karras at center, Ereck Flowers at left guard and some combination of Michael Deiter, Shaq Calhoun, another rookie draft pick or a reasonably priced veteran at right guard.
How much did Flowers’ move from tackle with the Giants to guard with the Redskins help his career?
He allowed 24 pressures in 588 pass-blocking snaps as a guard in 2019; conversely, he permitted 38 pressures in 353 pass-blocking snaps as a tackle in 2018. What’s more, Redskins runs behind Flowers averaged a robust 4.55 per carry last season.
Bill Callahan, the former Redskins offensive line coach who became their interim coach last October, said Flowers came “a long way in a short period of time. He could be one of the top guards in the league.”
Flowers allowed only two sacks all season for the Redskins, and only five centers who played as many snaps as Karras (583) allowed fewer sacks than Karras’ two. Karras is a bright guy; he already has one master’s degree (in recreation and sports tourism from Illinois) and also is working on completing another master’s degree in business from Indiana.
The Dolphins might draft a receiver in the middle or late rounds, but they believe they have enough with DeVante Parker, Preston Williams, Jakeem Grant, Albert Wilson (if retained) and Isaiah Ford, Allen Hurns, former Seattle fourth-rounder Gary Jennings, former Eagles receiver Mack Hollins, former Browns receiver Ricardo Lewis and a few rookies competing for two or three spots.
At tight end, former Lions backup Michael Roberts will compete with Durham Smythe for the No. 2 job — both are skilled blockers — behind starter Mike Gesicki, with a draft pick potentially injected into the mix.
CHATTER
Here’s how Heat rookie Tyler Herro spent part of his first $1 million as an NBA player, per gq.com: $200,000 on a Mercedes, $85,000 on clothes, $80,000 on a Porsche for his mother; $60,000 on an apartment for himself; $60,000 on a Jeep for himself; $40,000 on a truck for his father; $30,000 on a chain for his neck; $20,000 for a personal chef; $10,000 on 10 pairs of eyeglasses and $5,000 on a Gucci Purse for his mother (his first purchase after signing his four-year, $17.2 million deal).
Herro also paid an artist $4,000 to create a painting with visuals of Herro over the years and also spent $10,000 on custom paintings around his apartment. And he said he will spend $10,000 going out to dinner this year, with Prime 112 his favorite restaurant.
AA neutral observer at UM’s private spring practices earlier this month said one huge positive is that all the coaches are finally on the same page. These offensive coaches all have experience in an up-tempo spread and “the staff is working as one,” that observer said. “That’s the biggest thing.”
New offensive line coach Garin Justice’s zone scheme “will help a lot,” said one practice observer, noting how much better the running game looked in practice last week than it did last year. “The offensive linemen will now be able to play to their strengths” instead of being ram-rodded into a power, pro-style running back.
A With the entire economy likely to suffer because of coronavirus, this is an inauspicious time for the Marlins to be deep in their mostcritical negotiations on a new TV deal they hope will triple in value from the $18 million or so they now receive annually from Fox (and new regional sports power Sinclair). That contract expires after this season.