NBA scouts give Heat an edge on Pacers in series

So what can we expect when the Heat and Pacers open their first-round playoff series on Tuesday? We solicited the views of two veteran NBA scouts, who requested anonymity. Their feedback:

Both said they would make the Heat the clear favorite and would be surprised if the Heat lost the series.

“That would be a bad loss,” one of them said. “With Indiana not having [All-Star forward Domantas] Sabonis, Miami is clearly the better team.”

Both scouts said they see only a few areas where Indiana has a possible advantage. One gave point guard Malcolm Brogdon a slight edge over Goran Dragic if Dragic remains a starter, noting “Malcolm can defend, is younger, and a better athlete.” The other said “it’s a wash” because Dragic is the better scorer.

The only other potential trouble spot for the Heat, both scouts said, is figuring out who would defend Pacers guard Victor Oladipo if Jimmy Butler defends T.J. Warren.

“They would be at a deficit with Jae Crowder, Duncan Robinson [or, depending on who starts,] Dragic or Kendrick Nunn on Oladipo,” one scout said. “Crowder doesn’t have the foot speed to stay on Oladipo.

But Miami plays a lot of zone, and that could be what they do. Robinson is not great as an individual defender, but he’s becoming a good team defender.

“To me, Crowder on Warren and Butler on Oladipo is the better way to go. And Derrick Jones and Andre Iguodala can guard Warren when [Miami] goes to the bench.”

But the other scout said: “Knowing Jimmy the way I do, even if [Heat coach Erik Spoelstra] wants Jimmy to match up with Oladipo, Jimmy is going to tell whoever is guarding Warren to switch so he can guard Warren. Jimmy is going to make it personal.”

When the teams met on Monday, Butler opened on Warren, Crowder on Oladipo, Dragic on guard Aaron Holiday, Robinson on Brogdon, and Bam Adebayo on Myles Turner. One scout warned that Holiday’s speed could be problematic for a Heat defense that has been vulnerable off the dribble.

“Aaron Holiday is better than I thought. His quickness could be an issue; he’s quicker than anyone the Heat has,” the scout said.

“You could put Nunn on him.”

One of the scouts said the clear difference in the rosters is players 4 through 10. With the Heat, if Butler, Adebayo and arguably Robinson are the top 3, that would mean Dragic, Tyler Herro, Crowder, Nunn, Kelly Olynyk, Iguodala and Jones compared with Brogdon (if you rate Oladipo, Warren and Myles Turner as Indiana’s top healthy three), plus Aaron Holiday, Justin Holiday, Doug McDermott,

T.J. McConnell, Goga Bitadze and JaKarr Sampson or Edmond Sumner or T.J. Leaf.

“Indiana’s six through nine isn’t exactly awe-inspiring, and 10 through 13 is weak, a lot of journeymen and non-rotation players,” one scout said. “One good thing you say is both Holidays can shoot. Clear edge for Miami with the bench.”

One scout said this could be a short series if Turner doesn’t hit his jumper: “Turner has to make shots. Is Bam going to go out and guard him? Turner is a three-point threat.”

The other scout marvels at how Adebayo has grown: “Bam is ridiculous defensively; he can guard on the perimeter, can switch 1 to 5.”

The scouts said they’re bullish on the Heat entering the playoffs.

“One through 10, they’re as good as anyone in the league in terms of NBA players,” one scout said. “Is that good enough with one so-called star [Butler] to get you to the Finals? It’s certainly good enough to win a round. Their depth is impressive. They have guys who can shoot, a go-to guy, veterans, good coaching.

“Robinson has been unbelievable; he’s getting better by the game. We were talking about why he went undrafted and everybody missed the boat on him. You have to give Miami credit for finding and developing these guys. Would he have shown the same level of development with 29 other teams? Probably not.”

One scout said he couldn’t see Indiana winning more than one game in the series unless Oladipo suddenly begins to look like the pre-injury Oladipo, the one who was an All-Star before sustaining a ruptured quad tendon in January 2019.

“Oladipo is just not at the same level as before,” one scout said. Said the other scout: “He’s had his moments, but he really hasn’t been that good since returning.” Oladipo is averaging 16 points on 40 percent shooting in the Disney bubble.

One scout — merely giving an opinion — said he expects Oladipo to end up on the Heat in 2021-22. But both scouts said they would prefer to have Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday than Oladipo if Miami cannot snag Giannis Antetokounmpo in free agency next summer.

“Jrue is a better defender, a more efficient player than Victor,” one scout said.

The other scout said he wants to see Oladipo next season but “Jrue Holiday is a little safer in terms of what you’re going to get. He’s more of a two than a [point guard]; he commits too many turnovers. Some players say he’s the NBA’s best perimeter defender, but I wouldn’t go that far. I would trade assets for Bradley Beal instead.”

TNT’s Charles Barkley calls Heat-Pacers a tossup, adding: “The Miami Heat doesn’t scare anybody.”

CHATTER

Credit Dolphins defensive tackle Davon Godchaux for organizing team workouts this offseason when the facility was closed. Godchaux, incidentally, said he tested positive for COVID-19 in June, then had a false positive recently. … Besides Jakeem Grant, the Dolphins also are looking at Chester Rogers and Noah Igbinoghene as returners. … Miami signed eight players from the shuttered Alliance of American Football last year and none made the team. Now the Dolphins are trying the spring league approach again by signing former Miami Central High standout Deatrich Nichols, who led the XFL with three interceptions.

Laurence Leavy, known as Marlins Man, is having difficulty dealing with the loss of one of his great passions: attending sporting events. Leavy, 63, is accustomed to flying around the country and attending hundreds of games annually. He said he typically spends $500,000 to $800,000 a year on tickets alone, and thousands more on travel.

Besides owning a total of

1,200 season tickets to the Dolphins, Marlins, UM and FSU in recent years, he regularly flew around the country to attend MLB and NBA games.

Without a game to attend since March, Leavy said: “I’ve felt a void in my life. I probably need therapy. For a guy who would go to a different city every weekend to watch Sunday night baseball, I miss it. [For the past decade], I was out of town 28 days a month, telling people about the Marlins.”

Leavy, who’s single, said he’s filling his time by focusing on his law practice. “I’ll go back [to games] but not until it’s safe,” he said.

AA UM official said the school will lose out on $50 million if there’s no football season and $30 million if it plays but without fans. UM is skeptical about other conferences pulling off a spring season.