Rotation holds key to Marlins’ playoff chances
Marlins manager Don Mattingly has a luxury most teams in his position envy.
Any given day, any given game, Mattingly is able to send a starting pitcher to the mound that he is confident will give him a strong outing.
The rotation now consists of Sandy Alcantara, the Marlins’ Opening Day starter; Sixto Sanchez, the organization’s top prospect; Pablo Lopez, who lived up to a de-facto ace role over the first month of the year while three starters were sidelined with COVID-19; Trevor Rogers, the ninth-ranked prospect in the organization; and José Ureña, the club’s Opening Day starter in 2018 and 2019 who made his season debut on Monday.
The Marlins’ rotation went through hurdles early on as the team maneuvered through the COVID-19 outbreak following the first weekend of the season, but the quintet now looks to be the strongest it has been all season heading into the final three weeks of the regular season.
And the rotation will likely serve as the biggest determining factor in the Marlins’ quest to reach the postseason for the first time since 2003.
“It’s going to be extremely important,” Lopez said. “It’s also going to be a lot of fun to watch, a lot of fun to see. I get front-row seats to watch those guys pitch every five days. I see the focus when they’re working on their craft and their execution. ... Our job is to try to give our team the best chance to stay in the ballgame. We have the arms to do it.”
BY THE NUMBERS
And they’ve certainly done it so far.
Heading into Saturday’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Marlins’ starting pitchers collectively have a 4.39 ERA, the second-lowest mark in the National League East and the 12th-best mark in
Major League Baseball.
How does the rest of the NL East compare? The Phillies lead the way with a 3.87 mark, which is eighth in baseball. The New York Mets (22nd, 5.22), Washington Nationals (27th, 5.66) and Atlanta Braves (28th, 6.22) are among the bottom 10 of MLB — and three of the bottom four in the NL.
Overall, Marlins starters have posted eight scoreless outings, tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs for most in the National League.
The Marlins have had this success despite having a dozen pitchers start at least once through the first 36 games of this 60-game season. That was a byproduct of their COVID-19 outbreak at the start of the season. Eighteen players were sidelined, including Alcantara, Ureña and Caleb Smith (who has since been sent to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Starling Marte trade).
With starting pitching experience at a minimum, Lopez stepped up and has provided a steadying presence on the mound during what has become a breakout season.
He’s the only Marlins starting pitcher to make every scheduled start. His ERA was 2.10 heading into August before two rough road outings against the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves (12 earned runs allowed over 5 2⁄
3 combined innings). He is still on pace to set careerbest marks in strikeouts per nine innings (9.00) and home runs allowed per nine innings (0.68). Lopez is also inducing ground balls at a 57.9-percent rate, seven percentage points above the MLB average.
Lopez credits pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr., for challenging him during spring training, the threeplus month layoff and summer camp for allowing him to exceed expectations.
“He told me to challenge myself,” Lopez said, “but he also gave me all the advice, all the feedback that I needed to hear at the time. ... He’s great at what he does.”
The return of Alcantara and Ureña from COVID-19 bring more experience to the group that the Marlins hoped to have all season.
Alcantara, an All-Star 2019, has a 3.97 ERA through four starts. Three of the 17 runs he has given up came in his the first inning of his first start back after missing six weeks because of COVID-19.
“Every time he goes out there, he’s a bulldog,” outfielder Corey Dickerson said. “He’s very confident. He believes in his stuff, and he should. The guys behind him are so talented and so good. Like I said a week ago, this rotation can be pretty lights-out. It’s going to be really fun down this last stretch playing behind them.”
Ureña, who joined the rotation after Elieser Hernandez went on the injured list after a strong season (3.16 ERA in six starts), held the Braves to three earned runs over five innings in his first start of the season Monday.
PROSPECTS LIVING UP TO BILLING
Another net positive to come out of the rotation this year: Two of the club’s top prospects — Sanchez and Rogers — have been given an extended look at the big-league level.
“Those guys are going to force their way into the big leagues,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill said.
If the two keep pitching the way they have, neither will be heading back down to the minors anytime soon.
Sanchez, the No. 22 overall prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline, has given up just five earned runs over 25 innings of work in his first three starts. He has struck out 25 batters while walking just two.
And while the long ball has hurt him — all five runs Sanchez has surrendered have come via three home runs — more than 75 percent of his outs on balls in play have come via groundballs.
Sanchez faces the Phillies, the team that signed him for $35,000 in 2015 and traded him to the Marlins as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade in February 2019, on Sunday.
Rogers, the Marlins’ first-round pick out of Carlsbad (New Mexico) High School in 2017, gave up five earned runs with 21 strikeouts against eight walks over 15 innings of work in his first three starts before being roughed up on Friday by the Phillies (nine runs allowed in three-plus innings). He had his best start of the year Sunday against the Tampa Bay Rays, striking out 10 batters despite being burned by three solo home runs for a no-decision.
“Those guys have been doing a great job,” Aclantara said. “I think they’re going to be really good pitchers for the Marlins for a long time. I feel happy having those guys here with us.”
DEPTH IS KEY
Should the Marlins make the playoffs (they entered Tuesday tied with the San Francisco Giants for the National League’s two wild card spots), starting pitching could give the Marlins an advantage to play the spoiler role.
Consider this: With the 16-team playoff field in place for this season, every team begins the playoffs with a best-of-3 series.
Should the Marlins’ starting pitching situation hold (and should they make the postseason), their rotation could serve as an equalizer during the first round.
But before the Marlins can think about playoffs, they have to get through a gauntlet to close out the season. This includes three more doubleheaders over an eight-game stretch at Marlins Park and no off days for the remainder of the season.
That means at least two more starters who are currently at the team’s alternate training site in Jupiter are going to get time on the mound, Miami decides to go the bullpen game route and solely use relief pitchers in one or multiple doubleheader games.
Mattingly knows he will need more than the five starting pitchers he has left to get through these final three weeks of the season.
Daniel Castano, a 25-year-old lefty, started the second doubleheader game on Friday. Robert Dugger threw four innings of relief in the first game.
Nick Neidert, the Marlins’ 11th-ranked prospect who began the year in the bullpen and is returning from COVID-19, is another likely candidate to make spot starts in doubleheaders. The Marlins also have Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett, respectively their Nos. 6 and 7 prospects, in Jupiter. Cabrera, however, dealt with a minor shoulder injury and likely would not be built up to work as a starter by the end of the regular season. Garrett is not on the 40-man roster, meaning the Marlins would have to make even more roster moves to accommodate him making his big-league debut this year.
“The depth is one of the things that we talked about,” Mattingly said. “It’s probably the reason Mike and the front office felt comfortable making the move to bring in a guy like Starling. We’re confident in those guys, and even those guys in Jupiter have a chance to help us.”