49ers will test Dolphins’ ability to stop the run
On paper it’s strength vs. weakness. Kyle Shanahan’s San Francisco 49ers love to run the ball. Brian Flores’ Dolphins struggle to stop the run.
Buried under the demoralizing coverage busts and poor technique that’s typified a pass defense that ranks at or near the bottom of most every NFL statistic resides this truth:
The Dolphins, for all their issues stopping the pass, have actually shown steady, noticeable improvement against the run.
After surrendering 217 yards and three touchdowns to the Patriots in the opener, the Dolphins have allowed 282 yards and four touchdowns — total — in the three games since.
Is that a real change or just statistical noise after nearly a decade of unspeakably bad defensive football?
The truth will come out Sunday, when coach Brian Flores’ group faces perhaps its biggest test of the year: The smash-mouth San Francisco 49ers, who bullied their way to the Super Bowl last year with a punishing ground game.
“If you’re a competitor, you take that as a challenge,” Dolphins linebacker Jerome Baker said. “You take that personally. You just want to go out there and really just compete. If you’re a competitor, you know exactly what they are going to do. They do it every week. That’s what they say, so Sunday, you’ve got to take that
personally. Are you basically going to let them do it or are you not? Sunday, that’s what you’re going to find out.”
The numbers, while improved, still aren’t exactly encouraging.
The Dolphins (1-3) haven’t had a top-10 run defense since the beginning of the last decade, and that doesn’t seem likely to change in 2020.
Through four weeks, they’re 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (124.8) and 22nd in yards surrendered per carry
(4.6).
The 49ers (2-2), despite a rash of injuries and inconsistent play from their best offensive linemen, have the league’s No. 11 ground game (128.5) and rank eighth in yards per attempt (4.7).
And that gap stands to widen if Raheem Mostert returns from an MCL sprain that kept him out of the last two games.
His 6.4 yards-per-carry average would rank in the top 5 among NFL running backs, if he had enough attempts to qualify for the leaderboard.
Mostert would be an upgrade over Jerick McKinnon, whose 5.7 average is inflated by a 55-yard run. McKinnon leads San Francisco with 193 rushing yards despite ranking last in time spent behind the line per rush (3.24 seconds), according to Next Gen Stats.
The Dolphins do catch a bit of a break, as the Niners’ loaded backfield won’t be at full strength Sunday. Tevin Coleman is out indefinitely with a significant knee injury.
And of course, the Niners’ No. 2 back from their NFC Championship squad will be in the other huddle. Matt Breida had 623 yards and a touchdown for San Francisco last year, only to get traded to Miami draft weekend for a fifth-round pick.
Breida, who ranks third among Dolphins in rushing (72 yards on 18 carries), said this about facing the team that dealt him after great collective success:
“You need depth at running back. It’s one of those positions where injuries do happen. I’m excited for all of those guys. We had a good year last year. As far as the trade goes, when I was traded here, I was excited to be part of this organization. … I always like new challenges and that’s how I looked at it.”
Breida’s new team will have its hands full with his old.
And a month ago, the expectation would have been the Niners would run wild.
But the Dolphins have gotten better, even if there’s plenty of more room for improvement. They only have one player — defensive tackle Christian Wilkins — who ranks among the top 10 league-wide against the run at his respective position group, according to Pro Football Focus.
The rankings for the rest of the front seven are rough. Davon Godchaux is 79th out of 100 interior defenders (and perhaps as a result, has seen his playing time reduced).
Among edge defenders, Shaq Lawson is 61st and Emmanuel Ogbah is 85th (out of 100).
Newcomer Kyle Van Noy has been solid, ranking
21st out of 79 qualifying linebackers, while Kamu Grugier-Hill is 45th, Baker is 49th and Elandon Roberts ranks 66th.
“It could always be better, but I think there is better communication,” Flores said. “I think there is better overall technique. It’s been better, but I think it can be better than it has been. The improvement is because the players are putting more time into it and worked at it. There has been some improvement.
“We’ve got a great challenge in the run game this week again Kyle [Shanahan]’s run offense,” he added. “Good backs, a good offensive line, tight ends who block and then just schematically, these guys do a good job creating angles and putting themselves in good position to rattle off big runs. This will be a big, big challenge for us.”