Depressed asset could provide opportunity for Heat
As we’ve explained in previous pieces, the Heat’s primary paths to improve this offseason are using cap space to sign a free agent such as Kyle Lowry or operate as an over-the-cap team to keep some of its own free agents (such as Victor
Oladipo) and acquire a free agent in a sign and trade.
But there’s another avenue available: acquiring a depressed asset, a skilled player who has seen his value drop because of injuries, declining production or age.
And there are several power rotation players that fall into that category, headlined by Dallas’ Kristaps Porzingis,
Oklahoma City’s Al Horford and Cleveland’s Kevin Love.
While Horford and Love are very much available, it’s unclear if Dallas will try to keep Porzingis or move on to try to clear 2022 cap space.
If the Heat trades for Porzingis or Horford or Love — with Love especially unlikely — it would involve exercising the $19.4 million team option on
Goran Dragic and/or the $15 million team option on Andre
Iguodala and dealing them to Dallas, OKC or Cleveland. The Heat must make decisions on the Dragic and Iguodala options by Aug. 1.
Examining those three players and whether the Heat makes sense:
PORZINGIS
The 7-3 Porzingis was named an All Star in 2018 — and is only 25 — but can’t stay healthy. He sustained a torn ACL with the Knicks in February 2018, missed all of the 2018-19 season to heal (he was traded to Dallas during the season), was sidelined for part of the 2020 playoffs with a lateral meniscus tear and skipped 29 games this season due to assorted injuries, mostly related to his right knee.
He still produced good numbers in 43 games this past season: 20.1 points per game, 8.9 rebounds and 1.3 blocks while shooting 37.6 percent on threes (96 for 258). The problem is the durability and the contract; he’s due $31.7 million, $33.8 million and $36 million the next three seasons.
ESPN’s Tim MacMahon wrote last week that “those [knee] injuries — and the resulting diminished mobility — made him a defensive liability, and they are among the reasons it would be difficult for Dallas to get value for Porzingis in a trade. He is owed $101.5 million over the next three seasons, a contract that executives and scouts around the league view as an albatross. … Porzingis has been frustrated. …During the Clippers series, Porzingis [was] a bystander on most offensive possessions. … With the stakes high, Porzingis had been turned into a max-contract role player.”
Whether the Mavs would deal him in a salary dump — expecting little in return except contracts that expire in a year — remains to be seen.
If the return is minimal, a case could be made for pursuing him, considering the Heat had interest in 2018. But an equally strong case could be made to stay away because of the durability issues.
HORFORD
He signed a four-year, $97 million deal with Philadelphia in July 2019 but wasn’t the ideal fit alongside Joel Embiid and was dealt to Oklahoma City last December.
On March 27, the Thunder announced that Horford would sit out the remainder of the season so the rebuilding Thunder could play younger players. The Thunder plans to try to trade him this offseason.
Horford would be a clear upgrade for the Heat at power forward; he averaged 14.2 points, 6.7 rebounds and shot 38.8 percent (56 for 162) on three-pointers in 28 games for the Thunder.
But three negatives: 1) He’s owed $27 million and $26.5 million the next two seasons. 2) Like with Porzingis and Love, the contract would make it more difficult for the Heat to pursue a star in 2022 free agency, with Bradley Beal, Kyrie Irving, James Harden and Kevin Durant among those potentially available. 3) He turned 35 earlier this month.
But what if OKC offered to return the Heat’s lottery-protected 2023 first-round pick to Miami (with Horford and a cap filler) in exchange for a Heat 2028 first-rounder and contracts with a year remaining (Dragic or Iguodala)?
That would give Miami something to think about, because re-acquiring its own 2023 firstround pick would allow the
Heat to include two first-round picks in a trade for a disgruntled star.
LOVE
He’s the least appealing of the three because he missed 22, 23, 60, 9 and 47 games the past five seasons. And he’s owed $31.3 million and $28.9 million the next two seasons. So it hardly matters that he averaged 17.6 points and 9.8 rebounds in 56 games in 2019-20, or that he averaged 12.2 points and 7.4 rebounds in 25 games last season.
On the depressed asset front, here’s an idea that makes you think: If Horford could be acquired for the Dragic contract, KZ Okpala and Omer Yurtseven (with the aforementioned 2023/2028 pick swap with
OKC) — and if Lowry can be acquired in a sign-and-trade from Toronto for the Iguodala contract and Precious Achiuwa — the Heat could field a starting group of Bam Adebayo, Horford, Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson and Lowry, with Tyler Herro and Dwayne Dedmon off the bench. There’s a combined 17 All-Star appearances in that group.
But because a sign-and-trade for Lowry would be involved, the Heat would be hard-capped at $144 million in that scenario (including Ryan Anderson’s
$5.2 million waive-and-stretch hit), and that group would cost in the $146 million range ($2 million over the hard cap) if Robinson gets $15 million for next season and Lowry $25 million, with the Heat filling out its roster with minimum contracts.
But the numbers would work, if say, Robinson gets $14 million and Lowry takes $21 million. Miami couldn’t use its $9.5 million mid-level exception in this scenario because these salaries would put the Heat very close to the hard cap. And there would not be space for Oladipo unless he took a minimum deal.
Would those players — Adebayo, Horford, Butler, Lowry, Robinson, Herro — and six minimum contracts (perhaps Dedmon and Trevor Ariza among them) get you closer to the top of the East? It’s interesting food for thought.
NON-DEPRESSED ASSETS
Meanwhile, there are other assets that aren’t “depressed” but still could be made available.
Perhaps Portland will make available guard CJ McCollum, who’s due $30.9 million, $33.3 million and $35.8 million the next three seasons; he averaged 23.1 points and shot 40.2 percent on threes this past season.
Boston is expected to look to move somewhat-declining point guard Kemba Walker, due $36 million and $37.7 million the next two seasons. The Lakers might deal wing Kyle Kuzma, due $13 million each of the next three seasons.
Perhaps Sacramento considers moving power forward Marvin Bagley (due $11.3 million and $14.8 million) or guard
Buddy Hield, whose contract (due $23 million, $21 million and $19.1 million) makes him unappealing. At the trade deadline, the Kings were disinclined to deal Harrison Barnes, who’s due $20.3 million and $18.4 million. Barnes would be the best fit for the Heat among those three Kings.
Perhaps Indiana would consider moving center Myles Turner, who led the league with 3.4 blocks per game and is due $18 million the next two seasons. Perhaps Orlando would consider moving ace bench scorer Terence Ross, who’s due $12.5 million and $11.5 million.
Any Heat offer for Portland’s
Damian Lillard or Beal — who are not available but conceivably could be at some point — likely would need to include Adebayo.
QUICK STUFF
Marlins’ GM Kim Ng said she expects 2020 draft pitching jewels Max Meyer and Jake Eder — who are dominating in Double A — to remain in the minors all season. … Ng expects to call up a “small number” of the Marlins’ top hitting prospects — to see them against bigleague pitching — if the team falls out of contention. … ESPN reported the Houston will wait until Deshaun Watson’s trade value is rebuilt (perhaps after a likely suspension before trading him), and the Dolphins remain a possibility if Tua Tagovailoa struggles.