I know Daniel Ortega: Trust me, sanctions alone won’t make this dictator hold free elections
The Biden administration has done the right thing in expanding U.S. sanctions against top officials of Nicaragua’s dictator Daniel Ortega’s regime following the arrest of that country’s four leading opposition presidential hopefuls in recent days.
But I know Ortega and, trust me, United States and international sanctions alone won’t work. While they are a necessary signal that the administration is is serious about defending democracy, they will not succeed in getting him to free political prisoners and allow free elections.
A more innovative approach, such as launching a massive U.S. and European intelligence operation, collecting banking data to document the Ortega family’s corruption, would be more effective. Threatening Ortega with publicly exposing his family’s shady business deals would frighten him more than economic sanctions do.
First, Ortega, 75, has seen what has happened in Cuba and Venezuela in recent decades. He knows that U.S. sanctions have not been able to bring down those countries’ dictators.
Second, Nicaragua’s foreign reserves are at a record high of $3.4 billion. Even if the Biden administration uses its clout to cut off loans to Nicaragua from the Inter-American Development Bank or other regional institutions, the country has enough foreign reserves to continue importing goods in the near future.
Third, and perhaps most important, Ortega doesn’t care much about his image abroad, or about foreign sanctions. Of all recent Latin American autocrats, he may the least concerned about foreign criticism.
When I last interviewed him at his home in Managua in 2018, a few weeks after human-rights groups had accused his regime of killing more than 300 people in anti-government demonstrations, Ortega said that many of the deaths were “invented.” He even claimed that some protesters had been killed by opposition gunmen in an alleged effort to blame him for the bloodshed.
I showed him pictures of pickup trucks with paramilitary troops carrying Ortega’s FSLN party flag roaming the streets in Managua in the midst of the demonstrations. Ortega shrugged and said that those pictures were probably fake.
When I asked him what he feels when he’s called a “dictator,” he shrugged again and said that, “I’ve been called many things,” adding that “I have learned not to be bothered” by such accusations.
He doesn’t care, which his latest actions have again shown. Over the past two weeks, he has arrested or placed under house arrest the country’s four leading presidential hopefuls, Cristiana Chamorro — daughter of former President Violeta Barrios de Chamorro — academics Arturo Cruz and Felix Madariaga, and civic leader Juan Sebastian Chamorro.
The four were competing to lead a united opposition ticket to confront Ortega in the Nov. 7 elections. Ortega has been in power since 2007 and is running for a fourth term, after changing the constitution that originally precluded him from seeking re-election.
Following the opposition leaders’ arrests, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for their “immediate release.” Blinken reminded Nicaraguan officials in a June 9 tweet that, “Our sanctions on members of the regime hold accountable those who carry out attacks on the Nicaraguan people.”
Days later, the Biden administration announced personal sanctions against four additional Ortega regime officials, including the president’s daughter Camila Ortega, who runs the family-owned Channel 13. These latest sanctions bring to 31 the number of Nicaraguan figures tied to the Ortega regime and eight companies whose U.S. assets have been blocked, or are prohibited from entering the United States.
Asked whether the Biden administration is also considering a new intelligence-gathering effort to expose the Ortega family corruption, State Department Acting Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere Affairs Julie Chung told me in an interview, “We will be utilizing every tool we have in our toolbox” to push for free elections in Nicaragua.
That’s great, but the Biden administration should make sure that it’s looking for new tools. In addition to sanctions, it should order a major intelligence probe into the reported corruption of Camila Ortega and her brothers, who reportedly run a big family business, taking advantage of their government connections.
Naming and shaming Ortega’s regime would threaten to embarrass Ortega in front of the Nicaraguan people. That’s what he would fear the most — much more than economic sanctions.
Don’t miss the “Oppenheimer Presenta” TV show on Sundays at 8 p.m. on CNN en Español. Twitter: @oppenheimera