Fins hoping to avoid 2020 repeat for some players

So what exactly are the Dolphins getting?

As the season opens on Sunday, that’s the question with several players expected to play key roles on this team.

For the team’s secondyear players, the question is whether most of them

( Tua Tagovailoa, Austin Jackson, Raekwon Da

vis, Robert Hunt) will take significant jumps from decent to top half of the league at their positions.

But with some veterans, there’s a different question that will begin to play out on Sunday: Are the Dolphins getting the player who fell short of career production — often significantly so — the last time we saw them in regularseason games?

Or are they getting the guy who was really good before falling off in the past year or so?

The most critical members of that group: Cornerback Byron Jones, receiver Albert Wilson, defensive back Jason McCour

ty and slot cornerback

Justin Coleman.

Jones wasn’t awful last season by any stretch, but his pass coverage metrics declined from his Dallas days.

Consider:

In 2018, his first year at cornerback after moving from safety, he allowed an 85.5 passer rating in his coverage area. In 2019 with Dallas, Jones permitted a 94.1 passer rating in his coverage area and Pro Football Focus rated him the 14th best cornerback.

But after signing a fiveyear, $82.5 million deal with the Dolphins, Jones permitted a 117 passer rating in his coverage area in 2020, permitting 40 of 61 targets to be caught for 683 yards, five touchdowns and the two interceptions. His PFF rating plunged to 54th.

Everyone expects more. Imagine how incredible this secondary could be if Jones raises his play from decent to elite.

“One of those things

I’m trying to do better is just getting my head around so I’m able to compete for the ball,” Jones said. “That’s one thing I wasn’t always great at, so I’m always working that.”

Jones said in Year 2 as a Dolphin, “I feel better playing a different style of football here. It was an adjustment.”

With Coleman, the Dolphins are hoping to get the instinctive defender who has allowed a strong 86.1 passer rating against in his coverage area when playing in the slot over his seven-year career while returning two interceptions for TDs.

They’re hoping they get the 2019 version of Coleman who was targeted a ton (more than any NFL cornerback except Logan Ryan) but had 13 pass breakups and three forced fumbles and played a team-high 963 snaps for the Lions.

But they must hope they don’t get the 2020 Coleman, who permitted 33 of 40 passes to be caught against him for 365 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. That equals a 138 passer rating in his coverage area, worst among all slot corners who defended at least 40 passes in the slot.

“He’s a really good matchup guy; he covers big guys, he covers small guys,” Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said.

Defensive backs coach Gerald Alexander said the decision about who will play the most at nickel corner — Coleman or Nik Needham — will be made on a week-to-week basis. Needham had an excellent camp and had a 90.6 passer rating in his coverage area last season. “As long as I get my hands on guys, I can dominate,” Coleman said.

Also in their defensive backfield, the Dolphins hope they’re getting the 2019 McCourty, who permitted just a 63.3 passer rating in his coverage area, 24th best in the league. They’re hoping they do not get the 2020 McCourty, who had a 135.0 passer rating against him for New England, with four TDs and no interceptions. That was 19th worst among 224 cornerbacks.

Wilson — who wasn’t as effective in 2019 because of hip and hamstring issues and opted out last season — showed in the first two weeks of camp that he’s still capable of being the guy who ranked among the league leaders in yards after catch in 2018, not the one who was 95th in that category among receivers in 2019.

Then there’s Michael Palardy, who missed last season after suffering a torn ACL in the summer but was 13th in punting average in 2019 for Carolina. The Dolphins cut Benardrick McKinney after concluding he wouldn’t return to his 2018 Pro Bowl form.

FINS FEEDBACK

National predictions on the Dolphins are mixed. Peter King and all five writers for Pro Football Talk predict Miami will miss the playoffs.

But ESPN rates them the 11st best team in the NFL (14 make the playoffs) and says the Dolphins have the best underthe-age-of-25 talent in the league.

ESPN’s Power Football Index, using a complicated formula, gives the Dolphins a 54.3 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 2.5 percent chance to win the Super Bowl.

“I think people are underestimating what Brian Flores has done in Miami,” ESPN’s Bart Scott said. “Miami is a good team. They have a better defense [and better] wide receivers” than New England.

Feedback from a longtime NFL front-office executive on the Dolphins’ roster:

The executive said this is a playoff caliber team, if Tagovailoa is at least decent.

“They’re right there; they have speed on the outside, which had been a problem in the past, a good front seven and two

Areally good corners.”

He said his team had

Justin Herbert ahead of Tagovailoa and that it wasn’t especially close.

“Put it this way,” the front office executive said. “If you knew nothing about these players and you’re looking at them for the first time before the draft, and you look objectively, I don’t know how you could say Tua was better. Look at every measurable and durability and every issue, and Herbert was the better prospect. I know Nick Saban can be convincing, but I’ll never understand that decision.”

What about running back? He’s not convinced about Myles Gaskin as a No. 1 back but said “[ Salvon]Ahmed is interesting. He has really good ability. You can get by with the running backs they have. To me, a big question is can DeVante Parker and Will Fuller play a full season.”

He’s also not convinced about this offensive line. “I had concerns with

Liam Eichenberg’s athleticism, but he’s smart and tough. I’m not sure about Austin Jackson.”

A He loves the Jaylen Waddle addition. Keep in mind that Waddle, per PFF, gained 15 yards on more on over 36 percent of his targets in his threeyear career at Alabama, which led all FBS wide receivers by four percentage points over that period.

Defensively, “I like the

Jerome Baker extension. That’s good for both sides. He can run but he’s a bit undersized to me. No issue with the McKinney

AA[release]; he was a liability in the passing game. Really like Jevon Holland; he should come in and play right away.

“I think they’ll be hard to run on; Raekwon Davis give them size. Adam Butler is a solid player. If [ Emmanuel] Ogbah does what he did last year and [ Jaelan] Phillips stays healthy, and adding Butler, their pass rush should be good enough.”

Dolphins executive Dan Marino remains hopeful about Tagovailoa. “I just think he has a better understanding of where he wants to go with the football,” Marino told Sirius XM. “And dealing with protections and all that stuff. He’s done a really good job of that.

Tua has been our guy, and we’re going to stick with him.”

Pro Football Focus names Tagovailoa the biggest breakout candidate at quarterback, noting that in preseason he went 6-for-8 for 54 yards and a TD on 10 pressured dropbacks, taking only one sack.

“That 66.1 passing grade under pressure was drastically improved from the 39.5 passing grade he earned across 95 pressured dropbacks last year. With new weapons galore on the outside, the second-year passer should take a comprehensive step forward this season.”

Even without Parker or Fuller playing, no offense averaged more yards per pass play this preseason than the Dolphins.

ABarry Jackson: 305-376-3491, @flasportsbuzz